George Paton has some important decisions to make as he takes control of the Denver Broncos roster. Free agency and the NFL draft will be key, but what could have a final precedent is the quarterback position.
Some close to the Broncos see Drew Lock returning for one last turn on the plate, with a little veteran competition behind him like Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jacoby Brissett. However, this equation has changed a bit since Lock returns as a consummate fact to be much less certain.
What changed? The Detroit Lions accepted Matthew Stafford’s request to seek a trade.
Over the weekend, NFL speculation was that to land Stafford, the Broncos would have to give up the No. 9 draft pick in the 2021 draft, plus at least a second round and / or Lock or a wide receiver. . Monday, NBC Sports‘Peter King raised a less prohibitive possibility.
King included the Broncos among the top three contenders in the Stafford draw, ranking No. 2 Denver behind the Indianapolis Colts and ahead of the New England Patriots.
2. Broncos. The new GM George Paton, who has been watching Stafford closely for 12 years while in Minnesota, would be sold to Drew Lock. Competition is needed. Compensation: two second-round picks (including the 39th overall this year). Or Lock plus, this year, the second round.
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The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft, Stafford has played 12 seasons in Detroit. He has reached a Pro Bowl (as a substitute), but has amassed some serious stats. He is the fastest QB in NFL history at 45,000 yards and has 282 touchdowns.
Unfortunately, Stafford’s statistical production has not been able to move the lions ’needle in nearly a decade. The next 33-year-old has taken Detroit to the playoffs three times, but has failed to win a postseason game and hasn’t sniffed it out since 2016.
Still, give Stafford a prolific career game, a solid offensive line, the kind of talent the Broncos possess, and a defensive coach who can handle everything else, and the argument is that Stafford could be successful.
May be. Maybe not. It doesn’t matter what you think, though. It’s how Paton sees Stafford that will determine how (and if) the Broncos warmly launch the draw.
Paton is very familiar with Stafford after competing against him as a Minnesota Vikings staff executive for 12 years at NFC North. This familiarity cuts both ways, though. Paton has been close enough to Stafford to have developed the view that he is a special, franchise QB who has been wasted in Detroit or, conversely, that he is a talent but does not have the good faith traits to lift everyone the ships.
Time will tell. NFL.com Tom Pelissero, who connected the Broncos with Stafford in the same way King did, exposed the financial pitfalls that any interested party will have to be willing to navigate to land the 13-year veteran.
Despite Stafford’s age and injury history, there are figures that there will be a strong commercial market if the Lions are willing to move him. He has a two-year, $ 43 million contract, a bargain price for a quarterback who still plays at a high level. Among others, the Broncos, Colts, Panthers, Patriots, Saints and Washington football teams are entering 2021 with important questions about QB.
Any transaction would likely occur before the fifth round of the 2021 league year, in March, when Stafford has a $ 10 million bonus. Lions would bring dead money of $ 19 million to the salary cap in 2021, but a trade would save $ 14 million in cap and $ 20 million in cash at the same time it is expected to lower the salary cap of the NFL.
Bottom line
If the Lions were willing to accept a pair of second-round picks, or a 2021 second round and Lock, in exchange for Stafford, it could be a deal Paton couldn’t turn down. It would allow Paton to keep his first players and Lock a fresh start.
However, all I’ve heard is that the starting point even for listening to the Lions is a first round selection. The higher this selection in project order, the luckier the Lions will be to deal with Stafford. But it won’t end here.
A first- and second-round selection will be made to land Stafford. I would be surprised if it ended up being anything less. And that cost would be prohibitive to the point that Paton might be much more inclined to run it again with Lock one … more … year.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen i @MileHighHuddle.