The fight against terrorism is moving away 20 years after 9/11

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Twenty years after 9/11, The U.S. counterterrorism strategy depends more on drones in the air than on boots on the ground.

Why it’s important: Gone are the days of a massive military presence to fight international terrorists. President Biden now plans to fight terrorist groups in Afghanistan from the “horizon” and warns that the threat has “metastasized” beyond Afghanistan and al-Qaeda.

  • Now the fight is focused on monitor and remotely attack a wider range of terrorist groups.

Michael Morell, the former acting CIA director told Axios: “We’ve learned in the last 20 years that … huge armies on the ground are actually a bad idea because they encourage people to join terrorist groups.” .

  • Instead, the focus is on providing partners on the ground in places like Syria or the Sahel region of Africa with drones, air support and intelligence, says General David Petraeus, who headed the Central Command of the States. United and the CIA.
  • This is insufficient to really eliminate the threat, says Petraeus, but it can be maintained for years or even decades if costs and casualties in the United States are limited.
  • Biden has once again committed the United States to these efforts in places like Somalia, even when the “war forever” in Afghanistan ended.

The catch: A successful remote approach requires accurate intelligence and allies in the field. And when it comes to Afghanistan, the Taliban’s capture may lure the U.S. into unfamiliar waters.

  • In all countries where the United States has used components of an off-the-horizon counterterrorism strategy, it has had the appearance of an intelligence network, partner at the nearby ground and air base, says Seth Jones, program director. of international security of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Game status: In Afghanistan, the abandonment of U.S. bases and the evacuation of CIA sources have decimated U.S. intelligence capabilities and the country is now ruled by a long-term enemy.

  • Biden’s strategy off the horizon it will require the sending of drones from the Gulf, over Pakistan (assuming the consent of the Pakistanis) and into Afghanistan.
  • “More than 50% of flight time” it could be used only to come and go from Afghanistan, says Petraeus. “We will not be able to maintain almost the same number of glances that do not flicker over Afghanistan as we did in the past without considerably more planes.”
  • A strike off the horizon in Kabul on August 29, to prevent what the administration described as an imminent Islamic State attack, it was reported that it left ten civilians dead, including seven children. A New York Times investigation suggested drone operators mistaken water containers carried by an Afghan humanitarian worker for explosives.
  • “The less intelligence it helps has on the ground, the more likely you are to make mistakes and kill innocent people, ”says Ben Friedman, policy director for Defensive Priorities, a think tank that emphasizes“ realism and moderation ”.

But many experts they are more optimistic, citing the massive investment the United States has made in general surveillance since 9/11.

  • “My biggest concern it’s not that the intelligence community and DoD can’t figure it out, ”says Morell, who hosts CBS News’ “Intelligence Matters” podcast.
  • “My biggest concern is whether they will have the resources and focus to do this work given the new emphasis on our peer competitors, “particularly China.

What we are seeing: Critics argue that the 9/11 attacks led to 20 years of overestimating the global threat of jihadist terrorism, while allowing opponents, including China, to catch up with the United States while successive administrations spent billions on prosecuting the war on terrorism.

  • “When people try to kill you, they literally try to kill you, it’s hard not to put most of your focus on it,” Morell says. “Maybe even more focus than you should.”

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