- The first study of the rapidly spreading UK coronavirus mutation now warns that stricter safety measures may be needed to prevent another massive outbreak.
- Computer models indicated that the virus could be 56% more infectious than other strains. The new mutation is not causing more serious illnesses, however.
- Researchers warn that schools may need to be closed in order to buy more time in Britain. They also say vaccination campaigns should be stepped up to reduce the spread of the virus.
When the British Prime Minister announced last weekend that the newly discovered coronavirus mutation could be 70% more infectious than other strains, some experts questioned the estimate, saying more data is needed to determine the potential danger of coronavirus. the stump. Many European countries imposed bans on UK travel to reduce the risk of strain B.1.1.7 traveling to the rest of the EU region. The mutation involves a collection of 17 genetic changes, a first for the most notable mutations in the coronavirus. While it may not cause more severe cases of COVID-19, these mutations may make it more infectious. Some health experts even warned that the changes could make existing vaccines less effective, although many others said there are no such concerns. The consensus was that more research was needed to determine the way forward. The new strain should be tested in laboratories to determine how infectious it is and whether it can bypass the neutralizing antibodies generated after vaccines.
The first study of the new coronavirus strain is already here and tells the world that the threat can be serious. Stricter measures may be needed, including the closure of schools and universities, as well as accelerated vaccination campaigns to prevent the B.1.1.7 epidemic from escaping.
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The study comes from the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and was published online in prepress form. The scientists found that the UK mutation is 56% more contagious than the other versions circulating in the country and will require additional measures to contain it. The estimate of 56% is still approximate, as researchers collect more data. The study found no evidence that the virus was more lethal than other strains, which is at least good news.
“It may be necessary to greatly accelerate the deployment of vaccines,” said Nicholas Davies, lead author of the study. The New York Times. “The preliminary findings are quite convincing that faster vaccination will be a really important thing for any country that has to deal with this variant or similar.”
The scientists did not study the behavior of the virus in laboratory tests, but used computer models to predict the severity of the pathogen. Their tests ruled out the possibility that strain B.1.1.7 has become common in some regions of the UK because people in these places move more than others and are more likely to come into contact with more people. The scientists also modeled what could happen over the next six months and built models using various levels of constraint. “Cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths in 2021 may exceed those of 2020,” without a substantial vaccination campaign. The UK has reported close to 2.2 million cases so far this year, including almost 70,000 deaths.
Researchers said closing schools until February could save time in the country. Lifting restrictions would lead to a significant increase in cases.
A vaccination model where 200,000 people are vaccinated each week showed that the rate would be too slow to affect the spread of the mutated virus. “That kind of pace wouldn’t be able to withstand much relaxation from any of the control measures,” Davies said. If weekly vaccines reach 2 million, COVID-19 transmission could decrease. But the supply of vaccines is still low and it will take some time for vaccination campaigns to accelerate. Even when there is enough supply available, it is unclear whether the country can increase vaccinations to 2 million a week.
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Like any other COVID-19 study, this study could benefit from additional data and may have limitations affecting models. Some experts who analyzed the study The times pointed out some potential problems, including the assumption that people under the age of 20 had a 50% chance of contracting the disease. But even those researchers made it clear that the mutation should be taken seriously or that it could cause another severe outbreak.
The full study is available at this link.
Chris Smith began writing about gadgets as a hobby, and before he knew it, he was sharing his views on technology issues with readers around the world. Whenever he doesn’t write about gadgets, he can’t get away from them, even though he tries desperately. But this is not necessarily a bad thing.