Since I have repeatedly complained in 2020, I must point out that the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has belatedly and reluctantly begun to publish realistic estimates of the extent of Covid-19 in the United States.
It is difficult to describe as a deliberate mistake, but at least the timely addendum reminds us that any fourth wave will focus on people who are not part of the approximately 100 million who have already been infected and who have also acquired some immunity. like the 100 million possibly overlapping who have been vaccinated.
Which means the fourth wave will be largely limited to unvaccinated young people who remained diligent all the time and are now mixed and exposed to risk in a way they didn’t a couple of months ago. .
Along the same lines, the results from California, Florida, Germany, Sweden, and other countries have any simple correlation of mandatory blockades with a successful practice of social distancing. One conclusion is overwhelming: like Florida, the highest case load happened long after New York or northern Italy, some places benefited from having time to think and consider and follow more nuanced approaches to Covid’s arrival. .
We may find that blocking measures came too late, are not complied with, or are simply irrelevant alongside the decisions people make about when and how to expose themselves to risk.