The general manager of Houston Hospital predicts the herd’s immunity in mid-summer

HOUSTON – Herd immunity in the Greater Houston New District region will be achieved by mid-summer, Baylor College of Medicine President and CEO Dr. Paul Klotman predicted Wednesday.

“The amount to achieve herd immunity is a calculated amount” based on the virus’s contagion, Klotman said. “It’s not invented.”

Herd immunity is defined as a high degree of protection against a particular infectious disease, such as COVID-19, which occurs when a sufficient population is immune, which severely limits the spread of the virus.

This herd immunity for the original COVID-19 strain is 60% to 65%, Klotman said. With the new variants, it is approaching between 70% and 75%.

“That will be … in mid-July, in mid-summer,” he said.

These percentages include both those who are vaccinated and those who have contracted COVID-19 and have recovered, he added.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that for each case of the virus counted, there are several others that are not counted.

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In other words, Klotman said, we will have achieved herd immunity in the region by mid-summer because about 50% of the population will be vaccinated at that time and another large segment of the population will have recovered from virus.

Klotman stressed that, contrary to popular belief, refusing to follow CDC guidelines would not delay the herd’s immunity, but would accelerate it, at an unacceptable cost.

“If we leave public health measures now, it can be predicted, in July we will die between 1,500 and 7,000 jeans,” Klotman said.

Other health leaders who were part of the virtual press conference on Wednesday said the race continues to vaccinate people faster than the variants that are spreading.

“We’re really concerned that we’re going to get a big increase in people who don’t continue these public health measures, to really introduce a huge flow of infection and patients to our hospital,” said Bill McKeon, president and CEO of Texas Medical Center.

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“We’re on a much larger disease base than we’ve ever had in June and July,” McKeon added. “We don’t see the rapid decline we’d like to see.”

“The virus is the enemy,” said Houston’s chief medical officer, Dr. David Persse. “Wearing a mask is a strategy. A very effective strategy to minimize the effect of the virus.