Members of the German Green Party, including co-leader Annalena Baerbock (C) and local candidate Katharina Fegebank (CL), are reacting to the first exit polls giving the Greens 25.5% of the vote in the city’s elections of Hamburg on February 23, 2020 in Hamburg, Germany.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Germany’s political establishment is in a state of flux since Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in 2018 that she would not run for a fifth term.
Since then, amid constant speculation about who will be Germany’s next leader, new political trends have emerged in Europe’s largest and most influential economy.
The Green Party, for example, has grown in popularity among middle-class liberal voters, benefiting from a shift of voters out of the mainstream and a more environmentally conscious electorate.
Recent polls and several state elections show that support for the Greens has increased to such an extent that it could become key to forming the next government after the September national elections.
Four polls conducted in mid-April in Germany placed party support at 20-22%, making the Green Party the second most popular party after Angela Merkel’s CDU / CSU alliance.
This center-right political group, formed by Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and her Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, has been dominant in German politics for years. But support for the alliance came to around 28-31% in the same polls this month.
Germany’s political leadership could become clearer this week as the Greens and CDU / CSU announce which candidates they will nominate to run for chancellor. On Monday, the Green Party confirmed that Annalena Baerbock will be its candidate for the next German chancellor.
Jürgen Trittin, a member of the Bundestag and former leader of the German Green Party, told CNBC that Baerbock’s candidacy was a “historic decision” and a new chapter for the party.
“Now, for the first time, this (electoral) race is taking place between the green party on one side and the conservatives on the right,” he said. Trittin said he believed that Baerbock would be widely supported by the party as a whole.
The CDU / CSU will also announce this week who will run in the September 26 vote, but it is unclear whether CDU leader Armin Laschet and CSU leader Markus Söder will lead the Conservatives in the next election.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, on Monday gave the chance for the CDU / CSU to lead the next German government with 65%, with the Greens as a minor partner (a 95% probability).
However, Schmieding also said there was a 35% chance the Greens could form a government without the CDU / CSU. Instead, it could form a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (the SPD, currently a junior coalition partner with the CDU / CSU) and with the Liberal FDP or the Left Party as a third partner.
“Only a ‘green-red-red’ coalition between the Greens, the SPD and the left-wing party would announce a major shift in German policies, especially towards tighter regulations on the labor market, housing and products. which would reduce the growth of the German trend, “Schmieding noted Monday.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank’s macro-strategy team said in a note on Monday that “it is no longer likely that the next German chancellor can come from the Greens after the September federal elections.” Still, the bank still sees a CDU / CSU-Green coalition as its benchmark, as it hopes the Conservative alliance regains momentum from the vote.
Speaking to CNBC on Monday, Berenberg’s Schmieding said a power vacuum caused by Merkel’s departure was to be expected.
“When a bigger leader comes out and Angela Merkel won’t show up again, there’s a bit of a gap and it’s right that we see a bit of that, to some extent, at the European level and, to a more significant extent, at the German level, “he told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.