The Greens of Germany want to shake up the country’s politics, that’s how

In just a few years, the Green Party of Germany has gone from being a bit on the fringes of political establishment to gaining popularity and prominence.

Now, he is in a position where he could begin to overcome Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian alliance, the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU).

If he extends and maintains this position, the party could be at the helm of Germany’s political, economic and, of course, environmental leadership after the September 26 elections.

Recent election polls have put the party in second place in the CDU-CSU. But a poll by the Forsa Institute on 1,502 people, conducted on Tuesday, put the Greens in the lead with 28% of the vote, an increase of 5 percentage points over a similar poll conducted between 6 and 12 April. The same survey showed that support for CDU-CSU had fallen 6 points, to 21%.

Europa Elects, the aggregator of the polls, noted on Twitter that if this result were repeated in the election, it would be the first time since 2005 that Merkel’s conservative alliance had not come first.

While the Greens certainly seem to see an increase in popularity, it should be noted a separate INSA poll for the Bild newspaper on Tuesday which placed CDU-CSU at 27% of the vote and the Greens at 22% of the vote. , reflecting similar results in other April surveys.

In the last election in 2017, the Greens got only 8.9% of the vote, while Merkel’s CDU-CSU got 33% combined.

Forsa’s poll will have to give a massive boost to the Green Party, which will increase the solid momentum of recent months and the selection earlier this week, Annalena Baerbock, 40, co-leader of the party, as a candidate of the chancellors of the Greens. Party officials are increasingly confident in their chances in the election.

“Everything is possible,” Konstantin von Notz, a member of the Bundestag and the Green Party, told CNBC on Tuesday, echoing one of the party’s slogans.

“There would be no doubt, it will be a very tough election campaign. It will be a big controversy and people from all parties will be very tough with us because the Greens say we could be the main party and that wakes up … every enemy.”

The Greens attract unknown voters from Germany’s former political party guard. Recent scandals and political fights within the CDU-CSU (more recently, over who will be the alliance’s candidate for chancellor in the September 26 vote) have also benefited the Greens, who appear united, focused and appealing. len a middle class and liberal environmentally conscious electorate.

Von Notz said the party had seen more voters turn up in recent years and that many Germans are “tired” of the old political establishment.

“Five months before the election there is a long way to go, with many conflicts, without any doubt, but I firmly believe that we have a very good narrative and strong political ideas about the future of Germany, the future of Europe and the connection those problems related to the economic crisis and the problems of climate change that everyone is facing, ”he said.

As expected, the central policy promise of the Greens is the protection of the environment. But the party also wants to restructure the country’s economic model to make it a social-ecological system, which means more emphasis on green technologies, by abandoning coal energy in 2030 and banning vehicles with combustion engines. the German roads in 2030.

To help fund its program, the party has called for the relaxation of the so-called debt brake that would allow Germany to raise more money in public markets and has also called for an increase in taxes on the rich. The money raised from this wealth tax could partially fund an investment program of 50 billion euros ($ 60 billion) a year, over a decade, that the party proposes to move to a carbon-free economy.

Strategists believe a coalition between the CDU-CSU and the Greens is a basic scenario and that the Conservative bloc is preparing, according to Christian Schulz, director of European economics at Citi Research, who explained in which direction this coalition could go. to enter.

“We would expect ambitious climate protection policies backed by large public investment. We doubt the CDU / CSU will sanction tax increases, so additional lending is likely to require changes in the constitutional debt brake. That would be possible, since the opposition SPD and the Left Party would not oppose this and secure the necessary two-thirds majority, ”Schulz said.

German business groups are not so convinced by the policies of the Greens, however, with the BDI commenting in March that the draft Green Party election program offered “little light and much shadow.”

In a statement, BDI managing director Joachim Lang warned that “higher taxes and more bureaucracy would cost the economy and society a lot,” although he said the party’s calls for a decade of ‘future investments’ should be well received’.

“Higher taxes reduce investment power and hinder future spending on climate protection. Demands for higher CO2 prices without proper alternatives weaken Germany’s competitiveness,” he said.

“A wealth tax massively reduces investment opportunities. Not only companies suffer, but all citizens suffer. From an industry point of view, a decade of future investment is required to overcome the consequences of the pandemic. of the coronavirus and strengthening Germany as the location of the business is positive “.

– CNBC’s Annette Weisbach contributed to this story.