JERUSALEM (AP) – Israelis vote on Tuesday in their fourth parliamentary election in just two years. Once again, the race is summed up in a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, who has been prime minister for the past 12 years, hopes voters will reward him for successfully leading the implementation of the coronavirus vaccine in the country and its diplomatic diffusion in the Arab world. Its challengers have highlighted its first erroneous steps in the coronavirus strategy, its reliance on religious and ultranationalist allies, and its ongoing process of corruption..
Over the years, Netanyahu has developed a reputation as a political magician and master manipulator capable of surviving any crisis. With witnesses about to take a stand against him next month, Netanyahu expects another miracle that could deliver a more friendly parliament and a willingness to grant him immunity or freeze his trial. Opponents portray him as a serial liar who has caused two years of political paralysis by putting his political survival and legal problems ahead of the country’s interests.
Opinion polls predict an extremely narrow race, which increases the chance of continuing the deadlock and even an unprecedented fifth consecutive election. Netanyahu seems to have a slight advantage due to the complexities of the Israeli political system.
In Israel, people vote by parties, not by individual candidates. Netanyahu’s Likud is once again about to come out as the biggest individual party. But as no party has ever won a 61-seat parliamentary majority alone, political alliances need to be formed to create a governing coalition. If opinion polls were accurate, Netanyahu would have a clearer path to building a government than the set of rivals who have little in common beyond their animosity toward it.
Below is a look at the key factors that could determine whether Netanyahu or any of his challengers can achieve this elusive 61-seat majority.
VACCI-NATION: Netanyahu has pledged his hopes of re-election in the wake of the success of Israel’s vaccination campaign. Netanyahu last December moved quickly and aggressively, personally pushing CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna to get enough vaccines for the 9.3 million Israelis. In less than three months, Israel has vaccinated about 80% of its adult population. With the fall in infection rates, this has allowed the country to reopen schools, restaurants, museums and the main airport just in time for election day.
Opponents have accused Netanyahu of cheating the management of the pandemic during the last year. A series of blockades severely affected the economy, thousands of businesses failed and unemployment remains in double digits. Many also have bitter memories of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies violating the blocking rules. and point to the country’s more than 6,000 deaths from COVID-19.
With the economy coming back to life, Netanyahu hopes the growing sense of normalcy will make voters forget last year’s difficulties. This may explain why, while polls show that most Israelis want Netanyahu replaced, he is also considered the most suitable to be prime minister.
“In the minds of the people, first and foremost in the elections, is the identity of the prime minister,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of Israel’s Institute of Democracy. “In many ways, this works in Netanyahu’s favor because it’s not clear who the opponent is.”
I HAVE TO STAY OR I SHOULD GO: opinion polls have indicated that 15% of voters remain undecided. Tuesday’s election will depend not only on who supports these voters, but on whether they decide to vote.
Analysts expect turnout to be less than 71% in the most recent election a year ago, in part because of constant concerns about the coronavirus along with general voter fatigue. Israel offers special accommodations, including separate stands and mobile polling stations, to allow sick or quarantined people to vote.
But more important than global participation will be voter participation in key sectors. Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies tend to have highly motivated voters. On the other hand, Arab voters, disappointed with the disintegration of the umbrella of the “joint list”, are expected to stay home more numerous this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have lower turnout rates. Netanyahu could benefit if these trends materialize.
ABOUT THE WORDS: These elections could depend on the presence of some small parties. To enter the Knesset or parliament, a party must receive at least 3.25% of the vote, giving them a minimum of four seats in the 120-seat body.
Surveyor Camil Fuchs said four small groups glide near the threshold. Of these, the meringue meringue party and the Blue and White centrist are “much more at risk” of not getting enough support, according to recent polls, he said. Both are members of the anti-Netanyahu bloc.
The religious Zionist party, a small pro-Netanyahu faction that includes openly racist and homophobic candidates, seems to be gaining strength. If one of the anti-Netanyahu parties fails to get in, a strong demonstration by religious Zionists could help put Netanyahu on the edge.
THE KINGS: Despite the tough run, neither Netanyahu and his hard-fought religious allies nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by centrist Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, are expected to capture most seats on their own.
This sets the stage for former Netanyahu aide Naftali Bennett to emerge as the decisive voice in coalition building. Bennett’s Yemina party supports the same harsh ideology as the Likud. But the two men have a notoriously strained relationship and Bennett has refused to commit to either party.
Given his similar worldviews, Bennett, who has been Netanyahu’s former minister of education and defense, seems more suited to joining Netanyahu than the anti-Netanyahu bloc, which ranges from open Arab parties to ex- allies of Netanyahu who have had bitter personal ruptures with him. Still, if offered the chance to be prime minister, Bennett could side with Netanyahu’s opponents.
Some polls have predicted that both sides will fall below the coalition, even with Bennett’s support. This could create the unlikely scenario of a small Islamic party led by Arab lawmaker Mansour Abbas as prime minister, or simply force a fifth election.
MISSING ACTION: In the previous three elections, Netanyahu boasted of his close alliance with then-President Donald Trump, posting massive billboards on highways and at the heights men displayed together. With Joe Biden now occupying the White House, Netanyahu has barely mentioned the new president, whose administration has given him a warm welcome.
Similarly, the Palestinians have hardly been mentioned, reflecting the freezing of years ago in substantial peace efforts. But Biden has indicated that he will soon re-engage with the Palestinians. This could make it difficult for the next Israeli leader to ignore the issue, or Biden.