The Israeli general says it will be difficult to stop the nuclear program

As Iran increases uranium enrichment by 60%, a short jump to military rank by 90%, world powers are trying to convince the Islamic Republic to pause.

Meetings to return both Iran and the United States to a form of the nuclear deal signed in 2015, known as the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan, resumed in Austria this week.

While Israel is not part of the talks, he is a major actor in the drama that could escalate quickly.

Israel, along with its Arab allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, want the US to increase pressure on Iran by strengthening the JCPOA to include terrorism, missile development and what they call “expansionism of Iran ”throughout the Middle East.

Iran and Israel have been involved in a shadow war that has intensified in the past month. An explosion disrupted one of Iran’s nuclear power plants in Natanz; one of Iran’s spy ships was hit by an explosive device in the Red Sea; and at least two Israeli-owned cargo ships have been targeted.

Iran’s decision to increase uranium enrichment came after the Natanz explosion, which the Islamic Republic has blamed on Israel.

Israel has promised to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if all else fails, and they have experience in that field.

Forty years ago, in June 1981, eight Israeli F-16s took off, flew over the Red Sea, rode across the Jordanian-Saudi border and dropped their bombs on the Iraqi nuclear power plant in Osirak days before it landed. in heat. It was called Operation Operapera and one of the pilots was General Amos Yadlin.

In 2007, Yadlin, while serving as head of military intelligence for the Israeli army, helped design a second operation. This one went to the secret nuclear power station of Syria. Operation Orchard was also a success: the target was completely destroyed.

Yadlin said that if this is the case, this time it will be very different: “Saddam and Assad were surprised. Iran has been waiting for this attack for 20 years.”

Yadlin said Iran’s program is “much more fortified and dispersed,” while Iraq and Syria’s nuclear programs were concentrated in one place. Iran’s nuclear program is in dozens of places, many buried in the depths of the mountains. In addition, it is unclear whether intelligence agencies know all the details about the locations of the Iranian program.

“Iran has learned from what we have done, but we have also learned from what we have done and now we have more capabilities,” Yadlin said.

Military planners in Israel say that regardless of the talks in Vienna, they have five strategies for stopping Iran:

• Option 1: push for a stronger agreement between Iran, the United States, Russia, China, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
• Option 2: Demonstrate to Iran that the cost is too great, in terms of sanctions and diplomacy, to continue on the current path.
• Option 3: What is known in Israel as “Strategy C”: through covert attacks, clandestine actions, and cyberattacks. In essence, try it all out of the war.
• Option 4: Bomb Iran’s nuclear program.
• Option 5: push for regime change in Iran. This is the most difficult strategy.

Due to the strength of the ayatollahs — their control over the military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, and a powerful force known for their brutality — the Basij, which fosters internal rebellion, is a long shot.

However, the regime is becoming increasingly unpopular at home and the country has seen several protests erupt in recent years, according to Ali Nader, an Iranian analyst with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. The main reason for these protests is a faltering economy, hard hit by U.S. sanctions, which serve as the main American lever against Iran in nuclear talks in Vienna.

“The United States has total control of the Iranian economy,” Nader said. In 2018, Iran had cash reserves worth more than $ 120 billion. Due to sanctions, this stock fell to about $ 4 billion in 2020, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

The first thing Iran wants during these talks is for the US to facilitate sanctions, which will allow it to sell oil to Asia and Europe freely. According to the International Energy Agency, which controls oil production and shipments, Iran is receiving sanctions and increasing supply to China.

In January, Iranian oil shipments to China reached record levels. Nader believes that the United States, by doing nothing more to enforce these sanctions, is indicating that it is willing to make a deal.

The big question in the conversations, though, is who has leverage in what is becoming a chicken game.

Henry Rome observes the negotiations as an analyst of the Eurasian group. He expects no breakthrough or breakthrough as both sides try to get the other to make the first move.

With Iran in the running to elect a new president in two months, Rome said “Iran does not want to be seen desperate, the supreme leader would rather wait until after the June 18 elections before to make concessions “.

“Iran play with a weak hand, but they do very well,” Roma said.

Yadlin is nervous because the United States will be too anxious to reach an agreement and give away too much, repeating what he calls the mistakes of the 2015 deal. Yadlin points to Iran’s enriching achievements, reaching the symbolic 60% mark.

“The first deal is proving to be a problem, look at how fast they move,” Yadlin said. “They could have enough uranium enriched to quickly reach two or three bombs.”

While there may still be some work to be done in terms of delivery methods and armament, Yadlin has no doubt that they have the knowledge to make nuclear bombs.