The wave of optimism that followed the approval of the first COVID-19 vaccines is slowing down, and that could pose problems for President Biden.
U.S. deaths from the virus reached 80,000 in January, making it the deadliest month in the country. And the new strains are worrisome scientists, including a mutation emanating from the UK that is more contagious and potentially more deadly than those seen earlier.
On Wednesday, the new head of the disease control and prevention centers, Rochelle WalenskyRochelle Walensky: Night Health Care: Biden Advisor Offers More Pessimistic Predictions About Vaccine Launch | CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514K on Feb. 20 | Vaccine research funds have been misused for decades, according to the surveillance document the CDC projects the United States could see as many as 514,000 coronavirus deaths on Feb. 20. Problems interrupt the first COVID-19., said the total number of U.S. deaths due to the virus will reach 500,000 on Feb. 20 based on the current trajectory. So far more than 425,000 people have died.
There have also been problems with the deployment of vaccines, and statewide officials complained that they are not getting clarity on how many shots will be available at any given time.
Although the new administration has been in power for only a week and cannot reasonably be blamed for many of the current problems, the problems are affecting the economy, which poses a considerable political risk to Biden.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, with a broader base, fell every Wednesday more than 2%, the latter having the worst day since October, as the Federal Reserve left rates interest close to zero.
Retail sales have been below expectations for the past two months. The latest monthly employment report showed that the country experienced a net loss of employment for the first time in eight months in December.
Any further deterioration could affect Biden’s political capital at an abrupt pace.
Fairly or not, he will be held accountable for a prolonged economic turmoil, just as the scores of President Obama’s polls declined at the beginning of his first term, as a financial crisis that began under the previous administration caused bleeding of jobs.
“I think his approval rating and popularity will depend, critically and above all, on the vaccine’s implementation. If that doesn’t go well, he’ll be blamed if it’s his fault or not,” said Mark Zandi, an economist at head of Moody’s Analytics.
“If the pandemic is out of control, so will the economy, and it will be blamed as well,” Zandi added.
For now, there is a growing consensus that a rapid economic recovery seems increasingly unlikely.
“The pace of recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with a weakness concentrated in the sectors most affected by the pandemic,” the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee said on Wednesday.
Biden is making a major effort to mitigate the economic effects of COVID-19 with its proposed $ 1.9 trillion rescue package. The proposal, which calls for direct payments of up to $ 1,400 for millions of Americans and for the minimum wage to be raised to $ 15 an hour, faces uncertain prospects in Congress.
Biden has also claimed that the pandemic situation is even worse than he had feared, preparing the nation for many more months of a grueling battle.
Speaking at the White House on Tuesday, the president equated the fight against COVID-19 with “a war effort” and noted that it was “no secret we have recently discovered … the vaccine program is in a worse state than that we expected or expected “.
Biden has appointed a coronavirus response coordinator and has resumed regular White House meetings of medical experts, including Anthony Fauci
Anthony Fauci Overnight healthcare: Biden adviser offers more pessimistic predictions about vaccine launch | CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514K on Feb. 20 | Vaccine research funds have been misused for decades, according to the watchdog, which Fauci trusts vaccine companies prepared for ‘mutant’ coronavirus strains Fauci defends Birx: “I had to live in the White House ” MONTH, the director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases. The president pledged Tuesday that states will have “a reliable three-week forecast on the supply they will get” in terms of vaccinations.
There have been small wrong steps.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki
Jen Psaki: overnight healthcare: Biden adviser offers more pessimistic predictions about vaccine launch | CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514K on Feb. 20 | Vaccine research funds have been misused for decades, according to the guardian, according to McCaul, who urges senators to block the Commerce Secretary’s vote out of concern for Hawaii. He told reporters on Tuesday that Biden had not set a specific target when he suggested that 1.5 million people a day (instead of the aforementioned figure of one million) could soon receive vaccines.
“The president didn’t really say,‘ The new goal is … ’The president said,‘ I hope we can do even more than that, ’Psaki said.
Biden says 300 million Americans could be vaccinated in the early fall. Somehow, this is a note of optimism. But it also underscores the time left to resume anything that comes close to normal life or normal economic activity.
Earlier this week, the governor of California. Gavin Newsom
Gavin NewsomFBI says California extremist could have been targeted by Newsom The Hill’s Morning Report – Biden defends legislative patience and urgent action amid Portland mayor’s crisis following clash at restaurant MORE (D) surprised many observers by announcing a reduction in restrictions, even though coronavirus cases in his state were only at high levels recently.
“The biggest threat is for Californians to take this as a signal to let go of the guard, even as the virus continues to rage,” a Los Angeles Times editorial warned. “The state cannot afford to continue the cycle of one step forward and two steps back that has kept us firmly within reach of the pandemic.”
Public health experts such as Kavita Patel, a physician and non-resident member of the Brookings Institution, fear there are real dangers ahead.
“I know the restrictions are tough. People are tired, ”he said. “But the new strains, combined with a tired population, are very worrying, a recipe for disaster.”
The public’s mood about the virus remains dark, despite the existence of vaccines.
In an Economist-YouGov poll released Wednesday, only 17% of Americans believed that “the worst part of the pandemic is behind us.” Almost twice as many, 31%, believed that “the pandemic will get worse.” 32% said “we are currently in the worst part” of the battle against the virus.
It is still possible that the worst-case scenarios could be avoided, in terms of economic impact and public health.
The vaccination process could improve, new mutations in the virus could have minimal effects, and economically, the accumulated demand could drive new growth as the health threat is removed.
Right now, though, all of this seems far from true.
“The economy is struggling and the path to the pandemic has become more uncertain,” Zandi said.
The Memo is a column reported by Niall Stanage.