This is a year of effort for the United States and the world. The corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has affected more than 69 million people worldwide (approximately 16 million in the United States) and led to the death of nearly 1.6 million people at Johns Hopkins Medical University. The United States has been covering 300,000 deaths from COVID-19 since the eruption. But there also seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. In November, a handful of drug developers released positive postoperative intermediate and final analytical data from their current COVID-19 vaccine trials. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Bioendech (NASTAC: PNTX) announced 95% vaccine efficacy (VE) for BNT166b2 in the final study of its Phase 3 study. Meanwhile, Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) reported that its vaccine candidate (MRNA-1273) had a late primary performance analysis of 94.1% VE in its Cove study. With researchers expecting a VE to be as high as Influenza (50% to 60%), 90% + VE presents a real opportunity for the United States and the world to stop the epidemic within its tracks within the next year. However, what is good for humanity is not always good news for investors. Image Source: Getty Images. From the medical-level company to the overnight blockbuster this year, some stocks are hotter than Modernna, with the company’s shares rising 708%. Investors are clearly excited about receiving the MRNA-1273 positive rating from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) board on December 17th. Moderna, in partnership with the Lonsa Group, expects to produce 20 million doses in December, 125 million doses per 100 million in the first quarter, and 500 million to 1 billion doses by 2021. Within days of Moderna releasing its interim analysis data, its CEO Stephen Boncel said his company would like to charge $ 25 to $ 37 for a German news release. The size of its vaccine. Prices vary depending on how many vaccines a country buys (larger purchases will net lower average prices). Similar to the Pfizer / Bioendech vaccine, Moderna’s MRNA-1273 is given in two doses every few weeks. Assuming that Moderna’s 500 million dose plan can reach a low level by 2021, it will generate at least .5 12.5 billion in revenue from MRNA-1273. It is one of the best selling drugs in the world overnight. What’s more, the Moderna vaccine can be maintained at a constant refrigerator temperature (36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit) for up to 30 days and can be stored up to -4F for up to six months, which compares favorably with the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine candidate, which is close to -100 F when needed during transport. Will be saved. This creates distribution challenges for the latter in favor of Moderna. Sounds like a slam-dunk investment, doesn’t it? With a market cap of $ 62 billion, you might want to revisit that study. Image Source: Getty Images. Moderna looks like Gilead Sciences 2.0 – which is not a good thing, although it seems that Moderna has a clear path to being one of the two who initially entered the Covit-19 vaccine site, the first or second- trio benefit for a very long time. We know this because we ‘ve seen it play before. In 2013-2014, Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: Guild) stunned the world and the investment community when hepatitis C drugs Sovaldi and Harvoni were introduced to the market. Prior to these treatments, hepatic therapies were badly affected, and patients usually experienced a laundry list of undesirable side effects. Gilead Therapeutic Solutions provided a treatment for more than nine out of 10 patients, and the company rewarded it beautifully. In 2014, Gilead recorded $ 24.5 billion in net product sales, up from $ 10.8 billion in the previous year, to $ 12.4 billion combined with Harvoni and Sowaldi. The long story short story allowed Gilead to scoop out the first-three beneficial low hanging fruit (patients with obvious Hep C symptoms). However, during the Gilead years, competition intensified. With nearly half a dozen competing hepatic therapies and the treatment of many sick patients, Gilead’s hepatic drug sales fell to just $ 2.9 billion in 2019. Moderna faces a similar fate. There are about two dozen COVID-19 vaccine candidates in development, and if even half a dozen are successful within the next six to 12 months, it could halve Moderna’s revenue potential. Image Source: Getty Images. But wait – keep in mind that two dozen other drug developers have more to worry about than just their corona virus vaccine bag. For example, the Fifzer / Bioentech vaccine may present greater distribution challenges, but its cost is 50 19.50 per dose. The Sputnik V vaccine in Russia does not have the transparency of the medical data you see in the Pfizer / Bioendech study or the Modern test, and can be sold to international governments for less than $ 10 a dose. The thing is, there may be a high water mark in Moderna’s vaccine price, which could cost the company orders or put pressure to reduce its price. We also did not find some very important data from these COVID-19 vaccine tests. For example, we do not know whether it is possible for a person to be infected after being vaccinated. But most importantly, we have no clue what kind of immunity these vaccines provide. Without this knowledge, trying to respect Moderna is tantamount to blindly wearing and throwing darts at the dartboard. Moderna is also a pony act. Despite having a dozen clinical trials and another eight pre-emptive / partner programs in its pipeline, Moderna’s next closest vaccine to reach FDA approval and distribution is, initially, about four years away – assuming everything goes well. It is a company that will rely on MRNA-1273 for at least the next three to four years. Typically, biotech stocks estimate 3 to 6 times their maximum annual sales potential. By 2021, 500 million doses could be sold (.5 12.5 billion), making Moderna’s estimate make sense. But by 2023, total sales could shrink to $ 4 billion and $ 5 billion as new vaccines enter the market. It is absurd that paying 12 to 15 times the sales by 2023 could be a tactical miracle. Moderna has a lot of money, so disappearing overnight is not a threat. But the stock of the world’s most popular corona virus has a good chance of losing at least half of its value by 2023.