Scientists are trying to figure out why coronavirus cases are falling in India when at one point it seemed like the country could overtake the United States as the most affected nation.
In September, the country reported about 100,000 new cases a day, but fell in October and now stands at around 10,000 a day, leaving experts struggling to explain why.
While the government of India has wanted to put apparent success in its laws on the use of masks and social distancing, few believe that only these measures are responsible for the fall.
Instead, experts believe it can be reduced to the fact that India’s largest cities have achieved herd immunity, meaning the virus has spread to rural areas where it is most widespread. slowly and where cases and deaths are much less likely to be tried and recorded.
A recent survey found that 56% of people in Delhi, the country’s most populous city, have Covid antibodies, which is likely to be an underestimation with 70% needed for herd immunity.
Only about 20% of deaths in India are medically certified (i.e. 80% have no official cause of death). Analysts warn that the country may be counting less than three or three times its fatalities by Covid.
India also does much less testing than developed nations, with warnings from medical experts that some states rely on rapid side-flow tests that give falsely negative results.
The country also has a much younger population than many Western nations (with an average age under 30) and has much lower rates of obesity, which are the two main factors in infections and deaths from severe covid.
Relatively low mortality rate: India has far fewer deaths per million people than the UK or US
Coronavirus cases in India seem to be falling rapidly, although laws on mask use and social distancing are lax, leaving experts wondering why (pictured, Chennai cricket fans packaged and without masks)
Antibody surveys conducted in Bombay, India’s second largest city, and Pune also showed antibodies in about 50 percent of the population, The Times reported.
“The most densely populated areas are already saturated and reach the herd immunity threshold,” said Giridhar Babu, an epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India.
“The virus has spread to rural areas, but they are not as dense.”
Having a less dense population means the virus spreads more slowly, which will naturally reduce daily case numbers.
But often, with access to health care in rural India, it can also mean that many cases and deaths are not detected.
Test data for India show that only 0.5 people per 1,000 are scrubbed every day, one of the lowest rates among countries reporting such data.
More data published in September last year showed that people in rural areas are less likely to suffer than those in cities, which means that as the disease moves away from urban centers, the number of positive tests seems to decrease.
The average number of tests performed per day has also dropped across India since mid-December, which could also help explain why the positive test results have fallen.
And even those who are whipped can return false-negative results, and doctors warned in September last year that many states relied excessively on rapid side-flow tests, which are unreliable.
Rijo John, a public health policy analyst, also warned that some states do not report on what kind of tests are used, further confusing the picture.
“More and more states are moving toward rapid antigen detection testing, which is known to have a high percentage of false negatives, and do not use standard full-capacity RT-PCR testing,” he said.
‘It should be mandatory for all states to report the rupture[down] of different types of tests, as well as the advantages of these. ‘
The data also show that 80% of Indians die at home, with no national requirement for a cause of death to be given before a body can be cremated or buried.
This has led experts to warn of a “substantial” sub-count of deaths, with Dr. Babu warning that the true toll could be two to three times higher than the official count.
The crowd in the test match against England has surprised many spectators in the UK
Scientists are baffled by the relatively low rate of coronavirus infections in India after at one point it looked like it could overtake the United States as the country with the largest number of cases. In the photo: People are wearing masks today in front of a hospital in Jammu, India
The Indian government has also attributed in part the decline in cases to masked clothing, which is mandatory in public in India and the offenses generate heavy fines in some cities. In the photo: A student has the temperature outside Srinagar University today
But others point out that the pressure on the country’s hospitals is being reduced as proof that there is something other than an insufficient count of cases and deaths.
Some point to India’s young population and relatively low obesity rates as possible explanations.
According to 2015 data, the country has an average age of less than 30 years, with only 15% of overweight adults and 5% obese.
In comparison, the United States, which has been hardest hit by Covid, has an average age of 38 years, with 32% of overweight adults and 36% obese.
Age and obesity are known to be two of the most important factors that increase the likelihood that someone will become seriously ill or die from Covid.
Other theories include that India has been treating less virulent strains of the virus than those found in Europe, the United States and parts of Africa.
India suspended all commercial flights in March last year and, although it has been operating “travel corridors” since July, has been rapidly cutting routes to countries where new dangerous variants such as the UK have emerged.
This could have prevented the country from suffering spikes in infections like the one seen in Britain after the so-called Kent variant appeared, epidemiologists suggest.
Others believe that Indians, many of whom live in unhealthy conditions and suffer from repeated waves of infections, have naturally resistant immune systems.
England play cricket against India in Chennai, with the stands full of fans behind
Jacob John, a prominent virologist at Christian Medical College in the state of Tamil Nadu, said:[India suffers] dengue, chikungunya, malaria, typhoid, cholera, dysentery, flu, so the “innate immune system” is trained to be on high alert. ‘
The success cannot be attributed to vaccinations, as India only started administering blows in January, with only seven million of the country’s population, which has reached $ 1.3 billion, so far.
Experts have warned that even if the herd’s immunity in some places is partially responsible for the decline, the general population remains vulnerable and must continue to take precautions.
This is especially true because new research suggests that people who became ill with a form of the virus may become infected again with a new version.
A recent survey in Manaus, Brazil, estimated that more than 75% of people had antibodies to the virus in October, before cases increased again in January.