The Navalny movement deactivates the protests as it delves into the long haul

Instead, his movement will focus on this September’s parliamentary elections, when his sponsors hope to oust the ruling United Russia party loyal to President Vladimir Putin.

The rallies sparked repression by authorities as police beat protesters and detained thousands, including many allies of the opposition leader. This use of force risked putting the middle Russians who had gravitated the movement down a dangerous path to confrontation with the Kremlin, said Leonid Volkov, one of Mr Navalny’s top lieutenants.

“Tens of millions of people saw with terror how [Mr. Putin] he showed that he was willing to defeat unarmed peaceful protesters with their storm soldiers, “Volkov said in a video to supporters on Thursday.

Last Sunday, Russian police arrested the largest number of protesters on a day in recent history. The next day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said police officers were justified because the protests were illegal.

The protests were organized in response to the arrest of Mr Navalny on his return from Germany last month, where he had recovered from a poison attack last year. Underlining the widespread discontent with the Kremlin, more than 40% of protesters at rallies across the country on January 23 were protesting for the first time in their lives, an informal poll showed.

In 2013, after a judge found him guilty of embezzlement, Navalny was released after his supporters pressured his release in demonstrations in front of the Kremlin. Since then, Mr Putin has been less tolerant of dissent, analysts say. At the same time, Mr Navalny has become a more powerful political force with an international position, which increases the stakes around street protests.

The decision to stop the protests reflects Mr Navalny’s inner circle’s concern about the effectiveness of leading people to protest week after week.

In neighboring Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko – an ally of Mr Putin – has faced months of protests by protesters who say the election he won last August was neither free nor fair. Belarusian authorities have arrested thousands.

Navalny’s team saw the mass protests go without effect, Volkov said.

Mr Putin “learned from Lukashenko that people can be beaten very, very, very painfully and kept in power,” he said. “It was an election that pushed people to the streets in Belarus. For us, our elections are still ahead ”.

In the coming months, Mr. Navalny’s team will follow a two-axis strategy. The movement, which has gained prominence through online exhibitions of wealth and corruption in Kremlin circles, will help European authorities identify stolen goods and launder money in the European Union.

At home, he will focus on the polls and promote Mr Navalny’s strategy of identifying and supporting viable opposition candidates in races across the country to eliminate United Russia numbers.

“We should redirect the great anger and dissatisfaction that have accumulated before the election and use them” against United Russia, Volkov said.

Although Putin is not a member of the United Russia, the party has been behind its policies, including support for a constitutional amendment that would allow it to remain in power for years to come, in addition to supporting laws that strengthen the freedoms of free internet expression in Russia.

Voting tactics, which Mr Navalny has described as a “smart vote”, have had mixed results in the past, and last year his efforts in local elections saw gains in only a handful of regions. But Volkov said greater visibility of the opposition along with increased discontent will help “break United Russia to pieces.”

Some supporters were disappointed by the suspension of the protests, while others said the movement could wait its turn.

“There are pros and cons, people’s emotions will cool down now, but if we’re really focused on parliamentary elections, it’s too early to start pushing for change,” said Andrey Neyman, a 45-year-old businessman from Kaliningrad who had joined the protests. “We can wait until May and it will be sunny again.”

The outburst of public anger against the Kremlin has come at a time when Putin is reflecting on his own political future. Last year, a series of new laws and constitutional amendments have given him the chance to remain in power until 2036.

“The Kremlin expected the support of the people to make this transition as easy as possible,” said Nikolai Petrov, a senior researcher at Chatham House, a think tank. “Navalny has ruined Putin’s gambit.”

Since returning to Russia last month, protests have caused Mr Navalny and his group to have greater exposure in a country where state television ignores him or derives him as irrelevant.

But data from independent pollster Levada last week showed that national attitudes toward Putin had not changed significantly during the nearly three-week period since the protests began.

Sociologists say that while confidence in him as president has fallen slightly, his approval rating is unlikely to fall below 60%, given the great political apathy of much of the population.

Whether or not Mr. Navalny and his team can get this passive support is key to the future of his movement.

“The resources available to the Kremlin and the opposition are totally unequal, and therefore the people of Navalny must take full advantage of the advantages it has to overcome the Kremlin,” Petrov said. “And here their advantage is the ability to quickly overcome the Kremlin, which has become increasingly inert.”

Write to Thomas Grove to [email protected]