While the governments of the United States and Europe rushed to remove their Afghan citizens and colleagues from Acceptance this week, Russia was one of the few countries that was not visibly alarmed by the seizure of power by the the Taliban.
Russian diplomats described the new men in charge of the city as “Normal Types” and argued that the capital was safer now than before.
President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that control of the the Taliban it was a reality they had to work with.
Everything falls far short of the disastrous war of nine years a Afghanistan which many Russians remember to support the communist government of Kabul in the 1980s.
Kind words for the Taliban
Unlike most foreign embassies in the capital, Russia he says his diplomatic mission is open and he has had kind words for the new rulers.
Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov met with a Taliban representative 48 hours after the seizure of power and said that he had seen no evidence of retaliation or violence.
Moscow’s representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, spoke of a bright future for national reconciliation, With law and order returning to the streets and the “end of many years of bloodshed.”
President Putin’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, even said it was easier to negotiate with the Taliban that with the former “puppet government” of the exiled president Ashraf Ghani.
Read also: “There was a real possibility of being assassinated”: the president of Afghanistan speaks for the first time after leaving the country
In addition, Russian diplomats claimed last week that Ghani had fled with four cars and a helicopter full of cash, allegations he described as lies.
Tracing the improvement of the ties
Russia is in no hurry to recognize the Taliban as rulers of Afghanistan, But there has been an apparent softening of the rhetoric.
State news agency Tass replaced the term this week “Terrorist” for “radical” in their reports on the the Taliban.
Moscow has been in contact with the Taliban for some time.
Although the the Taliban are on the list of terrorist and banned organizations of Russia since 2003, representatives of the group have been coming to Moscow to keep conversations December 2018.
The former Afghan government backed by the West accused the envoy of Russia of being an open supporter of the Taliban and to exclude the official government from three years of talks in Moscow.
Kabulov denied it and said they were ungrateful. But as early as 2015 he claimed that the interests of Russia they agreed with the Taliban in the fight against the jihadists of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) group.
This did not go unnoticed in Washington. The then US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, accusing Russia in August 2017 of supplying weapons to the Taliban, A comment Moscow rejected and described as “baffling.”
The Moscow Foreign Ministry said it had asked “our American colleagues to provide evidence, but it was in vain … we do not provide any support to the Taliban.”
In February this year, Kabulov infuriated the Afghan government by praising them the Taliban to “immaculately” fulfill its part of the Doha Accords and accuse Kabul of sabotaging it.
Read also: What is the Doha Agreement signed between the Trump administration and the Taliban and why it has been key for Islamists to retake Afghanistan
Focus on regional security
Despite its closer ties to the Taliban, Moscow remains pragmatic for the time being, observes developments and does not remove the group from its list of terrorists at the moment.
President Putin said he hoped the Taliban would live up to its promises restore order. “It is important not to allow terrorists to reach neighboring countries,” he said.
The key factors shaping Russia’s policy are regional stability and its own painful history a Afghanistan. He wants secure borders for his Central Asian allies and prevent the spread of terrorism and drug trafficking.
When the United States targeted the Taliban after the 9/11 attacks and established bases in the former Soviet states in the region, Russia initially welcomed the measure. But relations soon strained.
Earlier this month, Russia he conducted military exercises in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, with the aim of reassuring the countries of Central Asia, some of which are military allies of Moscow.
Last month, Russia he obtained assurances from the Taliban that any Afghan advance would not threaten his regional allies and that they would continue to fight ISIS militants.
Read also: How the US, China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan are involved in the struggle for the future of Afghanistan
The bitter memory of the Russian war
Moscow emphasizes that it has no interest in sending troops to Afghanistan, And it is not difficult to understand why.
He fought in a bloody war and, many would say, useless in this country in the last years of the Soviet Union in the 80s.
What began as an invasion in 1979 to prop up a friendly regime, lasted nine years and cost the lives of 15,000 members of the Soviet staff.
It made the USSR an international pariah, and many countries boycotted the 1980 Moscow Olympics. a huge load for the Soviet economy, which was collapsing.
While the Soviet Union installed a government in Kabul led by Babrak Karmal, the United States, Pakistan, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia supplied money and weapons to the mujahideen, who fought against Soviet troops and their Afghan allies.
Many of those who died were teenage recruits from the Soviet army, and the war made them realize how little the Soviet authorities cared about their own people.
It is believed that war accelerated the end of the Soviet Union, At least in part, by provoking the disappointment of its rulers.
The war ended with an ignominious military retreat in February 1989.
Fears for the future
Russia may have given the impression of being prepared for the rise to power of the the TalibanBut some experts believe it was taken by surprise as much as all other countries.
“We can’t talk about any Moscow strategy”, Says Andrey Serenko of the Russian Center for the Study of Contemporary Afghanistan, who believes decisions are being made on the fly.
“In Moscow he is concerned about being late for the remodeling of regional architecture.”
Others in Moscow are skeptical of what the Taliban government could bring.
Andrei Kortunov, head of the expert group of the International Affairs Council of Russia, believes that they will fight to control the whole country, especially in the north, and this it could threaten Russia and its neighbors.
“Perhaps some al – Qaeda cells, perhaps Islamic State – based Afghanistan, They would instigate some actions in Central Asia, ”he says.
Read also: The fear that Afghanistan will once again be a sanctuary for Qaeda
It also fears a sharp deterioration in the Afghan economy, which in turn could lead to greater instability.
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