The rise of more contagious variants of the coronavirus threatens an encouraging trend of falling COVID-19 cases across the country.
New U.S. cases of COVID-19 fell below 100,000 on Sunday for the first time since November, a hopeful sign after a brutal post-Thanksgiving period that saw an increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Health officials urge citizens and rulers not to relax on precautions despite the slightly improved situation, as measures such as wearing a mask and distancing oneself from others are even more important when the virus is more contagious.
In addition, while the trend is heading in a positive direction, the levels of cases, hospitalizations and deaths remain well above any of the previous peaks of last spring and summer.
According to the COVID Monitoring Project, 96,000 new cases were registered on Sunday, up from a high of nearly 300,000 in early January. But this is well above any level that experts would consider a goal. It is still higher than the maximum number of cases during the summer, for example, which was about 75,000 cases a day.
About 3,000 people die every day from the virus and about 80,000 are in hospital with COVID-19.
Still, the positive trend has spurred some governors to start loosening restrictions.
In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) lifted the mask’s mandate last week and distanced restrictions on restaurants and bars.
While this is perhaps the most drastic recent move, other states have been taking more gradual steps to relax. Governor Andrew Cuomo
Andrew Cuomo: Republicans in 2024 hope to chart the front lines for the post-Trump era. Cuomo signs bill to repeal transit law while New York Republicans want Justice Department to cite Cuomo over nursing homes MORE (D) announced that indoor food may return to 25% capacity in New York City before Valentine’s Day.
Asked about the decision of Iowa, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Rochelle WalenskyRochelle Walensky: The CDC could set school reopening requirements this week, according to Biden, Maine governor warns against Super Bowl parties Republicans are looking to beat Democrats in reopening schools MORE on Monday he urged states not to lift precautions, citing in part the rise in new variants of the virus.
“We still have this emerging threat of variants, and I would simply discourage any of these activities,” he said. “We really need to keep all mitigation measures in place here if we are to really get control of this pandemic.”
Highlighting the threat of a more contagious variant of the virus first identified in the UK, a study published on Sunday found that the variant doubles every 10 days in the US and is likely to become the dominant strain in many states in March.
Because the variant is transmissible between 35 and 45 percent, experts warn that its rise could lead to a sharp rise in cases and hospitalizations.
“We certainly expect to see a rebound in cases” in the current trajectory, said Karthik Gangavarapu, a researcher at the Scripps Research Institute and one of the study’s authors. “We still don’t know how peak it will be.”
Increased genomic sequencing to track the prevalence of different variants, as well as additional contact localization efforts by local public health departments aimed at curbing the spread of the UK variant, could help fight , said Gangavarapu.
Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, issued a warning pointing to the example of Ireland, which was hard hit by the new variant. It reached a maximum of 132 new cases per 100,000 people in early January. “The United States has never seen such figures. Only the Dakotas had such high infection rates, ”Jha wrote on Twitter.
Jha added that he is “optimistic about the end of spring and summer” as vaccines will be more available by then, but said the coming weeks will be more worrying.
While there aren’t enough vaccines available to immunize everyone in the next two months, and there are logistical challenges in getting shots in millions of arms, the faster the vaccination campaign can go, the more any tip of the new variant will sink.
Encouragingly, it seems that vaccines work well against the UK variant.
But another variant, first identified in South Africa, is more worrying according to initial data. The results obtained so far have suggested a decline in the operation of vaccines with the South African variant. This variant has also been found in the US, but so far is less common.
Tom Frieden, a former CDC director, wrote that recent improvement trends are likely due to a continued recovery of the peak after the holidays, when an increase in travel and indoor meetings caused spikes.
“Now is not the time to drop the guard,” he wrote on Twitter. “We’re moving forward with vaccines, but variants are coming.”