The panorama of the COVID-19 on the island is uncertain given the little data during the festive season

Determining whether it is possible to relax the current restrictions imposed by executive order in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether they should remain the same or even if more controls are needed, will not be possible from a scientific point of view this week, ha held today by Dr. José Rodríguez Orengo, director of the Public Health Trust.

The warning flag rises days before the end of the current executive order, the last signed by former governor Wanda Vázquez Garced.

The doctor explained that there is only enough information until December 23, so he stressed that, before issuing an opinion on changes in the order, the collection of samples must be stabilized. or administration of COVID-19 tests.

“The number of tests that have been done from the 24th (December) so far, is much smaller than we have had before”, Explained. In the first week of December, for example, 58,000 tests were done, while in the week of 14 to 20 of the same month there were about 48,000 tests processed. These figures remained stable until the 23rd, but between December 24th and the 27th the number of tests performed fell by more than 75%.

In this regard, he stressed that “The amount of information we have is limited. The same thing was happening during New Year’s week. […] We understand that the number of people who were becoming infected was decreasing, but due to the decrease in the number of tests done so far, we cannot provide a clear picture. “

Rodriguez Orengo has clarified that it will not be until next Sunday when there could be enough information “about whether there is really a decrease or whether after the Christmas season we will be increasing (in cases of VOCID-19, hospitalizations).”

For his part, the appointed Secretary of the Department of Health, Carlos Mellado, argued that Governor Pedro Pierluisi Urrutia will make his determination regarding the next executive order according to the context available on the day of the taking of the decision.

“One of the things the governor has said is that, on average as much as possible, because this is scientific, we need to encourage orderly and safe reopening.”, Pointed Mellado. Beyond the restrictions on the executive order, the official argued that there are other actions underway, such as the massive testing plan ordered by the governor on Saturday. This plan includes taking COVID-19 tests to places classified as difficult to access, including the municipalities of Vieques and Culebra.

The goal, Mellado said, is to “have an epidemiological picture, know at the same time how many patients and percent of infections we have, and see all this effort translated into lowering the number of infections,” by combining -with contact tracking. This plan also seeks to increase the identification of patients with mild or moderate symptoms, who qualify to receive monoclonal antibody therapy as COVID-19 treatment, and thus avoid and reduce hospitalizations.

Possible death toll in December

Dr. Rodríguez Orengo also stated that until 23 December the number of infected people was still high and that the number of deaths had not decreased as expected. In fact, he has advanced that current figures suggest that December will become the month with the most deaths from COVID-19 on the island.

Until yesterday, November and December had the same number of deaths, 323. However, the Trust would receive information last night dead in the last week of December. “We understand that it will exceed the amount of November, which until then had been the month with the most deaths in Puerto Rico,” pointed out the director.

Discharge in hospitalizations is also not a signal that can be relied on exclusively to determine changes in the executive order today, because it is unclear whether this discharge responds to a real decline in cases or whether it responds to other particularities. of the Christmas season. On the other hand, “we are still a little high (in hospitalizations) to be able to give a respite to health professionals working in this area,” the biochemist explained.

The exepidemiologist of the State, Ángeles Rodríguez, agreed that, although the figures of the past few days reflect a decrease in hospitalizations for COVID-19, there is currently no widespread environment for improvement that justifies a flexibility of the measures imposed by order executive.

“I don’t think the numbers support opening up more (in reference to greater flexibility), the numbers haven’t changed that much, they’re stable, hospitalizations have gone down, but that has a number of factors.”, He argued.

Should there be a relaxation of the measures, the doctor warned that the consequences should be analyzed between 15 and 21 days after the entry into force, while reiterating that nothing currently supports that there is a lower risk. of community infection or a decrease in infections.

Rodriguez indicated that during the Christmas period, historically, the number of hospitalizations decreases, but this number stabilizes again after the Day of the Kings, so it would be after January 6 when he could analyze a more accurate scenario for the regarding hospitalizations for COVID-19.