A poll conducted in five states leading to elections to the Assembly early next year predicted bad news for Congress, as it could lose power in Punjab, where AAP could emerge as the largest party, while BJP would probably win Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand.
The ABP-CVoter poll predicted that BJP would return power to Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Goa, while Punjab could go to a hanging Assembly, but AAP has a huge advantage that it needs a couple of seats.
For Congress, it is likely to be relegated to third place in Goa while lagging behind AAP in the Punjab, which is the only ruling state among the states that will go to the polls next year.
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BJP is expected to return comfortably to Uttar Pradesh, politically crucial, but may lose about 50 seats in the 2017 polls when it reached 312 seats, while the Samajwadi party will double its seats to 47. The poll predicted that BJP would win 259-267 seats while SP is likely to win 109-117 seats.
The BSP, which won 19 seats, could only win between 12 and 16 seats, while Congress may see a further drop in the state with just 3-7 seats, compared to seven won in 2017. Other parties can get 6 -10 seats.
In the Punjab, the AAP appears to have made major forays with the poll predicting a more than double-seat increase (51-57 seats) in a 117-seat Assembly where halfway is 59.
Congress, which faces an internal struggle between Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and party head of state Navjot Singh Sidhu, is likely to be relegated to second place with 38-46 seats out of 77 seats in the 2017 polls, while Akali Dal may increase his count (16-). 24 seats) of the current 15.
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Uttarakhand, where Congress hopes to return to power, may also follow the BJP’s path for the second time, although it may lose some seats in the state where it recently changed two chief ministers in a three-month period.
In a House of 70, the BJP is likely to win 44-48 seats (57 in 2017), while Congress can win 19-23 seats (11 in 2017). AAP can win up to four seats, while others could get up to two seats.
The BJP may return to power with a majority in Goa, electorally fragile, with 22-26 seats in an Assembly of 40. Congress contemplates the possibility of being relegated to third place (3-7 seats) after AAP, which is he predicts he will win four to eight seats, while others may win 3-7 seats. In the 2017 polls, Congress had become the largest party, but defections helped the saffron party maintain power.
Manipur could also return BJP to power, this time with an absolute majority with 32-36 seats. Like Goa, Congress had become the largest party, but political maneuvering helped BJP snatch power. Congress is likely to win 18-22 seats, while NPF is expected to win 2-6 and another 0-4 seats.
ABP-CVoter survey
Uttar Pradesh (403 seats)
BJP – 259-267
SP – 109-117
BSP – 12-16
Curved – 3-7
Others – 6-10
Punjab (117 seats)
AAP – 51-57
Curved – 38-46
Akali Dal-16-24
Uttarakhand (70 seats)
BJP – 44-48
Curved – 19-23
AAP – 0-4
Others: 0-2
Goa (40 seats)
BJP – 22-26
AAP – 4-8
Curved – 3-7
Others – 3-7
Manipur (60 seats)
BJP – 32-36
Curved – 18-22
NPL – 2-6
Others: 0-4