The prospects for nuclear power are cooling a decade after the collapse of Fukushima

Even a local anti-nuclear leader, Katsushi Hayashi, said he spent more time these days fighting an unrelated railway line in the mountains, trusting regulators and public opinion would not let the plant open soon. “Fukushima gave us all the evidence we need. It’s dangerous, “said Mr. Hayashi.

The triple defeats of Japanese nuclear reactors at Fukushima after the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami marked a turning point in an industry that once dreamed of providing the world with almost unlimited power.

A decade after Fukushima, there are only nine reactors in Japan authorized to operate, up from 54 a decade ago, and five of these are offline due to legal and other issues. All reactors in Fukushima Prefecture are permanently shut down or ready to do so. Chubu electric power Co.

, owner of the Hamaoka plant, declined to make an executive available for comment. It has formally requested to reopen two reactors at the plant and has informed regulators that new measures such as the wall, completed mainly in 2015, make them safe for operation.

Days after the collapse of 2011, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the end of nuclear power in her country and the final reactor will be retired next year. The United States tightened regulations in response to Fukushima and no reactor began to be planned after 2011. From England, Wales, to Uljin County, South Korea, the projects of long planning have stopped security concerns and spiraling costs.

However, it is too early to say that Fukushima’s defeats killed nuclear power everywhere. Rather, they divided the world between rich developed nations that mostly shun nuclear and a coterie of developing nations, led by China, where industry retains hope for growth.

The number of nuclear reactors in operation worldwide stood at 408 as of July 1, 2020, down from 437 just after the collapse of Fukushima, as new openings do not reach closures in Japan, Germany and elsewhere, according to the report on the state of the global nuclear industry. operational capacity has changed little over the decades.

Nuclear power produces about a tenth of the world’s electricity, below a peak of 17.5% a quarter of a century ago.

The global move towards reducing carbon emissions, symbolized by the Biden administration’s decision to rejoin the Paris climate agreement, is a final wind of nuclear power in some places. The World Nuclear Association, an industrial group that includes power companies and nuclear power plant builders, has about 50 reactors under construction worldwide, including 16 in China. Some nations like Canada are studying a new generation of smaller reactors.

“I see a completely different picture in the last two or three years. We have started to see a lot of countries around the world that are really engaged in the new nuclear, ”said George Borovas, head of nuclear practice at the law firm Hunton Andrews Kurth, who cited the interest in Europe of the East and Middle East, among other places.

Before Fukushima, nuclear power competed primarily with fossil fuels. Today, the battle is more with renewable sources, particularly solar and wind energy.

Mycle Schneider, a nuclear power consultant who is often critical of the industry, said it made no sense to spend 10 or 15 years trying to build new nuclear power plants given the low costs of renewables and batteries to store it.

“A large portion of the world’s nuclear fleet is not competitive with new renewable energy currently,” Schneider said. “The industry had problems before 3/11,” the fall of Fukushima, “and 3/11 has dramatically worsened the situation.”

He noted an auction by the Portuguese government last August in which a successful bidder agreed to supply solar energy for just over 1 cent per kilowatt-hour, the amount of electricity needed to keep 10 100-watt light bulbs running for one hour. This compares to 2.8 cents to 10 cents per kilowatt-hour for nuclear power, according to an International Energy Agency calculator.

Renewable energies are not necessarily cheaper when you consider the intermittency of the energy they produce, nuclear advocates say. They also say that losing experience in nuclear science could have implications for national security for Western nations and Japan, and they see value — for both consumers and local economies — in an energy source that can last up to 80 years.

“The best green jobs are in nuclear power, because they’re head of household jobs and they’ll take you the whole career,” said Kristin Zaitz, an engineer who founded Mothers for Nuclear, a group of two women to defend the industry.

The core often loses renewable energy due to its cost due to strong regulation, which increases construction and operating costs. “It is already the safest way to produce reliable electricity. We can do a little more in trying to keep them operational instead of burdening them with more regulations, ”said Ms. Zaitz.

That’s where Fukushima comes into play, because memories of radiation leaks there make the public, especially in Japan, resistant to arguments for a lighter regulatory touch. A 2019 survey by a pro-nuclear industry group found that 60% of Japanese respondents wanted to reduce or eliminate nuclear power.

Even Chubu Electric, owner of the unused nuclear power plant, has no desire to openly defend the restart of its plant. In February, he posted a pamphlet and videos on the Internet promoting the impregnability of the wall and buildings of the watertight reactor. The pamphlet did not mention the company’s application to restart the reactors. “There are several ways to generate electricity and none of them are perfect,” the pamphlet said.

Write to Peter Landers to [email protected]