The speed of the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan surprised even some of its supporters and will force Iran to find a delicate balance if it is to take advantage of the influence it has worked for decades to build.
For years, Iran has supplied weapons and money to Taliban insurgents, according to U.S. officials, forming an unlikely but resilient link between Tehran’s Shiite leaders and the fierce Sunni fundamentalist insurgent group in Afghanistan.
Tehran’s goals are twofold: to ensure that economic and security ties are strong (Iran and Afghanistan are important trading partners) and to prevent a flood of refugees across the border.
This challenge comes at a time when other powers, mainly China, Pakistan and Russia, could also be well positioned to expand their influence in Afghanistan now that the US is leaving.
“Iran wants a stable and friendly Afghanistan that does not pose a threat and with which it has aligned strategic goals in favor of resistance against American and Western influence,” said Andrew Peek, former deputy secretary of state in the United States. ‘Iraq and Iran, who was also an adviser on intelligence and special operations for General John Allen in Afghanistan.