The tropical system could reach the Gulf Coast like a hurricane in a few days

A few days later Hurricane Henri swept across the northeast, the tropics pose another even more dangerous threat. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance in the Caribbean that has not even become a so-called system, but in a few days it can hit the ground like a powerful hurricane on the Gulf Coast.

The disturbance, dubbed 99L, is in southern Jamaica and although it remains disorganized, there is almost unanimous agreement among computer models that it will become a bona fide tropical system by the end of the week as it moves rapidly. to the northwest.

If formed, many of the computer models predict rapid organization and strengthening. Due to its rapid movement, disembarkation would be possible as early as Sunday night or Monday.

Because the Gulf of Mexico has not seen a storm recently, the water has not been worked and the sea surface temperatures are very warm, ranging from 86 degrees in the deepest water to 90 degrees near off the coast of Louisiana. Combine that with the fast-paced approach of hurricane high season and there’s good reason to worry.

That said, the storm has yet to unfold, and until it does, the eventual clue and intensity will remain a mystery. This is because before computer models can have good control over the track, they need to know where the center of the storm will form. Once this is evident, the models will be easier.

However, there is a general consensus that this system is probably heading for the Louisiana or Texas coast. When it arrives it will depend exactly on where it touches land: further west, the longer it will take. But the window runs from late Sunday to early Tuesday. This does not leave much time to prepare.

The following image shows two of the most reliable mid-range models, the European and American models. The latest runs of both models show a strong hurricane that made landfall somewhere off the coast of Louisiana. But some other models predict that land will reach west along the Texas coast. As of Wednesday night, it looks like from Biloxi, Mississippi, to Corpus Christi, Texas, it’s still a fair game.

Several models show terrain centered near western Louisiana. If that happened, it would be exceptionally bad luck, as both Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Delta made landfall in this area over the past year. record hurricane season.

But with the system currently so disorganized, much can and will change, including the eventual track and intensity. No action is needed at this time, but it is recommended that area residents continue to pay close attention and make sure their hurricane safety kits are up to date.