The Trump administration declassifies as yet unconfirmed intelligence, recently reported to President Trump, which indicates that China offered to pay non-state agents in Afghanistan to attack U.S. soldiers, two senior officials told Axios administration officials.
The big picture: The release of this unconfirmed intelligence comes 21 days before the end of Trump’s presidency, after he promised to put pressure on China and months after news reported that the Russians had secretly offered rewards to Taliban militants for kill American troops in Afghanistan.
- The Chinese embassy in DC did not respond to any requests for comment. Trump is not believed to have discussed the matter with President Xi Jinping.
- It was not immediately known whether any members of Congress or President-elect Joe Biden were informed, although Biden now has access to the President’s Daily Brief (PDB).
Behind the scenes: Intelligence was included in the president’s briefing on Dec. 17, and Trump was verbally informed of the matter by National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, officials said.
- Currently, administration officials from various agencies are working to corroborate the initial intelligence reports.
- Axios could not visually inspect any report detailing the intelligence. Officials described a summary over the phone.
Why it’s important: If this intelligence were confirmed, it would represent a dramatic strategic change for China and drastically increase tensions between China and the United States. If the intelligence is not accurate, it raises questions about the motivations of the sources behind it, as well as about the decision to declassify it.
- China has long played a quiet diplomatic role in Afghanistan, inviting Afghan Taliban to Beijing to discuss plans for a peace deal and pushing for a Afghan-led solution, despite weapons and Chinese-made financing have also flowed into the conflict.
- It seems “incongruous” for China to take such provocative action in Afghanistan, Andrew Small, a member of the German Marshall Fund specializing in China-Afghanistan affairs, told Axios.
- The pursuit of peace in Afghanistan is “one of the extremely rare areas where the United States and China still have the will to work together in an area of importance,” Small said. “They know the withdrawal is taking place. We are not in the context where anything else has to happen to U.S. troops in Afghanistan. There is no reason to create additional pressure on U.S. forces.”
Flashback: In June, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany attacked the New York Times for publishing “unverified” allegations about Russian bounty intelligence.
- He suggested that “rogue intelligence officers” were undermining Trump and U.S. security. He also insisted that Trump had not been informed because the intelligence had not been fully verified.
Details: A senior official involved in the latest discussions in China, who described the unconfirmed intelligence to Axios, said: “Like all early reports, we react cautiously to initial reports,” but “any intellectual information related to the security of our forces we take it very seriously. “
- On December 22, officials held a meeting of the Policy Coordination Committee (PCC) to discuss the matter, said a second senior official with direct knowledge of internal discussions.
- The official said the CCP focused on two objectives, the consultation with the CI on attempts to verify the initial reports and the consultation with the intelligence and defense communities around the position of protection of the ICC. strength of the remaining forces in Afghanistan.
Officials do not describe the source or sources of intelligence nor would they say when or during what time period the activity occurred.
- One said: “The US has evidence that the PRC [People’s Republic of China] tried to fund attacks on the U.S. military by Afghan non-state actors by offering financial incentives or “rewards” and said the National Security Council “coordinates a government-wide investigation.”
- I wouldn’t say if he was referring to the Taliban or going beyond the descriptor of “non-state actors”.
- The timing of the alleged reward offer is unclear. The source would only say that this happened some time after the end of February, when the United States agreed to its agreement with the Taliban. He also noted that since then there had been no American deaths in Afghanistan.
- He said the administration had received prior information about “weapons from the PRC that flow illegally into Afghanistan.”
Between lines: The British and US governments had previously complained about the use of Chinese-made weapons by the Taliban.
- Interest in Afghanistan stems in part from Beijing’s desire to prevent Chinese Muslim separatist groups from using the country as a base.
- According to a December 25 Hindustan Times report, Afghan security officials recently discovered an alleged Chinese spy ring operating in the country and intended to target Uyghurs.
Don’t forget: Trump received strong criticism earlier this year when he admitted that he had not addressed with Vladimir Putin the unconfirmed intelligence reports that Russia was offering bribes to the Taliban to kill American soldiers.
- The commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, General Frank McKenzie, said in September that “no level of certainty has been shown to satisfy me” that Russia offered such rewards. (This information was included in the President’s Daily Brief earlier this year, the New York Times first reported).
- “We continue to look for this evidence,” McKenzie said of the reports on Russia. “I haven’t seen it yet. But … it’s not a closed issue.”