The coronavirus pandemic may no longer spread exponentially in the UK, according to government data suggesting the country’s third blockade works.
The results published on Friday showed that the official estimate of the “R rate”, which measures the number of people transmitting the virus to each infected person, was between 0.8 and 1. When R is greater than 1, the virus spreads exponentially. Last week it was estimated that the R rate ranged from 1.2 to 1.3.
The government said the rates of the cases remain “dangerously high” and urged citizens to maintain the blocking rules.
“There’s a small minority who don’t, a small minority who break the rules and don’t think they matter,” Environment Secretary George Eustice told Times Radio. “We can see that it doesn’t matter if we look at the pressure on hospitals right now.”
However, the data will provide welcome news to the government of Boris Johnson, who was forced to put the country in another closure in early January after a new highly infectious strain was imposed.
Fall rates
Data from the Department of Health show that the estimated rate of R has fallen in all regions of England since last week. In London, it fell between 0.7 and 0.9, suggesting that the disease is clearly in retreat in the capital, where hospitals are still under intense pressure. London Mayor Sadiq Khan on Friday reiterated his call on the government to tighten regulations.
R-rate estimates match findings from other sources. Friday earlier, statistics suggested the number of people infected with Covid-19 in England fell slightly the week to January 16th.
Covidae infection rates in England fall for the first time in a month
The Johnson administration wants to start lifting restrictions once it has vaccinated 15 million of the most vulnerable people and their caregivers. But the prime minister noted on Thursday that the rapidly expanding variant could mean blocking measures are needed in the summer.
Caution
Work published on Friday by the Government’s Emergency Advisory Scientific Group shows that there are precautionary reasons even with an R-rate below 1. According to a January 6 paper, scientists expect the prevalence of the virus to fall more slowly that during the first blockade last spring even though R stays below 1 until mid-February.
“As a result, hospital occupancy is very likely to be above or above its current levels in mid-February,” he said. At the time, there were nearly 32,000 coronavirus patients in UK hospitals, according to government data, a figure that was already about a third higher than the peak of the first wave last April.
Officials have repeatedly said they expect cases to reach the plateau and fall in the current closure long before the hospitalization rate and daily deaths show a significant improvement.
(Updates with comments from Eustice, Khan from the fourth paragraph)