The UK warns that deadly tension makes lifting blockade more difficult

Photographer: Leon Neal / Getty Images

The new UK coronavirus strain could be more deadly than previously thought, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said when he warned again that the country is expected to have a long wait before it can come out of closure.

At a press conference in London on Friday, the prime minister said new evidence had led the government to revise its initial view that the variant was more contagious but not more dangerous. It can be 30% more deadly than the original strain, or more, according to a government analysis.

“In addition to spreading faster, there now also seems to be some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the South East – may be associated with a higher degree of mortality. Johnson said from 10 Downing Street, flanked by his top medical advisers.

The government said that, on average, per 1,000 men aged 60, 13 to 14 would die if they contracted the new variant, compared to 10 for the initial strain.

The Prime Minister’s warning comes as Britain faces the highest death toll in Europe and struggles to recover from the economic remnants of its deepest recession in more than 300 years.

There was a a ray of light for the UK on government data on Friday suggesting that the second wave of the pandemic had reached its peak.

But Johnson and his scientific advisers were clear that rates of hospitalizations, deaths and infections remain too high and will not lift the restrictions that companies have closed soon.

More vigilance

Added to this was the warning about the increasing power of the new variant known as B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the UK last year and has spread throughout the world.

Read more: Why new virus strains are so worrisome: QuickTake

Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the new strain was not only easier to transmit, but was also linked to higher mortality rates than previous variants in circulation in Britain.

“It is largely the impact of this new variant which means the NHS is under such intense pressure,” Johnson said. “It’s more important than ever that we be vigilant and follow the rules.” There are 38,562 Covid patients in hospitals, 78% more than during the first peak last April, he said.

Although an initial analysis by Public Health England experts found that the variant was not related to more hospitalizations or deaths, independent reviews by external experts yielded consistent and worrying results, according to a government report.

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London found that mortality was 29% to 35% higher in those infected with the variant of concern or VOC, compared with those carrying the original strain of virus. The University of Exeter concluded that the risk was 91% higher, while a repeated analysis by Public Health England found a mortality 65% ​​higher.

“There is a realistic likelihood that VOC infection B.1.1.7 is associated with a higher risk of death compared to infection with non-VOC viruses,” the report of the Advisory Group on Virus Threats concluded. new and emerging from the UK government. “It should be pointed out that the absolute risk of death from infection remains low. “

More data will accumulate in the coming weeks as deaths occur due to infections, which could make the analysis more robust, the group said.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials have contacted for more information on the situation, but have yet to see the data or speak to their UK counterparts, an agency spokesman said Friday .

In other news on Friday:

• Johnson promised to do “All it takes” to support jobs if restrictions continue through the summer
• He warned that perhaps tougher border measures should be imposed to keep mutant strains out of the UK
• Proposal of officials pay people to stay home in an effort to encourage greater compliance with personal isolation orders
• Suggested data the blockade works and the pandemic may not spread exponentially in the UK
• Another 1,401 deaths were recorded in the last 24 hours, bringing the UK total to 95,981.

The prime minister is under pressure from his own Conservative party to expose his own roadmap to the removal of restrictions that have damaged the economy over the past year.

He is setting the government’s hopes on a strategy to immunize 15 million of the most vulnerable people by Feb. 15 – and reiterated Friday that the country is on track to meet that goal.

There is no evidence that vaccines being deployed in Britain are less effective against the deadliest variant of the virus, Johnson said. But infection rates remain high, with an average of every 35 people in London having the disease and the figure is 55 out nationally.

“We really can’t start thinking about unlocking until we’re sure the vaccination program is working,” Johnson said. “We need to be in a position where rates aren’t so high that one unlock will lead to another big rebound.”

– With the assistance of David Goodman, Michelle Fay Cortez and John Tozzi

(Updates with the US CDC comment in paragraph 15)