This week, all 50 states have officially opened eligibility for covid-19 vaccination to all adult residents. But while millions of Americans continue to line up to get their dose, experts warn that the country is rapidly approaching a vaccine surplus, with few recipients to meet the supply we have available. Once that happens, it’s still a question of whether the U.S. will distribute its unwanted vaccines to countries that desperately need them or even give them a chance to make them their own.
Tuesday, analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation he concluded that the United States will reach a turning point in enthusiasm for vaccination against covid-19 in the next two to four weeks.
Currently, just over 50% of eligible adults have received at least one dose of the vaccine. According to the most recent KFF surveys at the end of March, approximately 61% of eligible adults have received or are definitely interested in getting vaccinated. But there is still a steady contingent of Americans (10% to 15%, based on various polls) who openly say they will never get the vaccine willingly. And even in the best case scenario, where half of people who still have no doubts about the vaccine end up changing their minds, it would probably only take 28 days to get it to anyone who wants a vaccine, according to the KFF.
Probably as early as this week, the country will meet with President Biden sooner stated goal to administer 200 million doses during the first 100 days of his presidency. And projected levels of vaccine coverage are likely to be enough to drastically reduce the spread of the pandemic and limit deaths and serious illnesses caused by covid-19, similar to what has happened in countries like the UK and Israel. . But we may not reach herd immunity – levels of vaccine coverage and natural immunity that fully protect people who can’t or don’t want to get vaccinated from localized outbreaks. Once enthusiasm dries up, the supply of vaccines in the United States is also at risk of depletion, even as most of the world is not vaccinated.
Earlier this month, Vanity Fair reported that talks within the Biden administration had begun about how the U.S. would give its future unwanted doses. But those discussions stalled as the country continued to experience relatively high levels of new cases and many experts feared a fourth peak of the pandemic would emerge. Since then, while some states like Michigan have experienced alarming peaks in new cases, the United States as a whole has remained on a precarious plateau. However, not only local problems have delayed these efforts. Many of the government’s existing contracts with vaccine manufacturers – negotiated by the Trump administration – would have to be reworked first, as the current language seems to prevent them from giving overdose to other countries.
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The United States and other rich countries, as members of the World Trade Organization, have done the same prevented attempts by the poorest countries to achieve doses by temporarily renouncing patents that would allow them to produce their own vaccines locally at a much lower cost. And yet recent pleas by some lawmakers to change the administration’s mind and leave its support behind these resignations ahead of the next WTO general meeting this May, it is unclear whether the US will do so.
All of these setbacks and deliberate decisions could leave the United States protected, but not entirely, from the pandemic, while many of the world’s poorest nations would. they will remain largely unprotected until 2024, according to some recent projections.