The prediction is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, experience, literature, and expert consultation
Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine in the United States, said in an opinion piece published in the Wall Street Journal that the country will have collective immunity from Covid-19 in the United States. next april.
Makary, who is also a professor at Bloomberg School of Public Health, argues that the fact that cases have dropped by 77% in the last six weeks has been ignored, pointing to a rapid drop.
The physician largely attributes this drop in cases to the fact that natural immunity to previous infections is much more common than can be measured through testing.
“Tests have captured only 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone contracted the virus. Apply a time-weighted average case capture from 1 to 6.5 to 28 Cumulative millions of confirmed cases would mean that approximately 55% of Americans have natural immunity, ”he says.
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According to the prestigious doctor, to the issue of natural immunity is added which people get vaccinated. In this regard, recall that during the week 15% of Americans received the vaccine, a figure that is rising rapidly.
He alludes that, according to estimates by former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, by the end of March 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people.
“It is almost certain that antibody studies underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing does not capture antigen-specific T cells, which develop ‘memory’ once they are activated by the virus. In 2008, 90 years later, it was discovered that the survivors of the Spanish flu of 1918 had memory cells capable of producing neutralizing antibodies, “he explained.
Dr. Makary, also an adviser to the Sesame Care health service and author of the book “The Price We Pay,” says his prediction that Covid-19 will mostly disappear in April is based on in laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts, as well as in direct observation of how difficult it is for the poor to have access to evidence, so very few infections have been detected. .
“Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about collective immunity. The term has political connotations because some suggested that the US let Covid scrape itself to achieve collective immunity. it was a reckless idea.But collective immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination.When the virus transmission chain has been broken in several places, it is more difficult for it to spread, and this includes new strains, ”he argued.
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Professor Makary also reviewed the experience of collective immunity in other regions, such as the Brazilian city of Manaus, as well as the decrease in daily cases in other countries where there are new variants of the Covid – 19 as the UK, South Africa, Brazil itself.
In his external opinion article that, while some medical experts agreed with his prediction of collective immunity, he was advised not to speak publicly on the subject for fear that people would stop taking precautions or reject the vaccine.
Equally is the idea that in the United States, while the population is urged to be vaccinated, schools and society also need to be reopened to limit damage from closures and prolonged isolation.