With nearly two-thirds of the U.S. abnormally dry or worse, the government’s spring forecasts offer little hope of relief, especially in the West, where a devastating megadrought has taken root and worsened.
Meteorological and agricultural officials warned of possible cuts in water use in California and the Southwest, increased forest fires, low levels in key reservoirs such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell, and damage to wheat crops.
The official spring prospects of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Thursday’s drought is expanding with a drier-than-normal month for April, May and June for a large strip of the country, from Louisiana to Oregon. including some areas most affected by the most severe drought. And almost all of the continental United States has a warmer-than-normal spring, with the exception of small parts of the Pacific Northwest and southeast Alaska, which worsens drought.
“We are predicting a prolonged and widespread drought,” said National Weather Service Deputy Director Mary Erickson. “It’s definitely something we’re looking at and with a lot of concern.”
NOAA predicts that the spring drought will reach 74 million people.
Several factors worsen the drought, the agency said. A cooling in La Nina of parts of the central Pacific continues to cause dry weather in much of the country, while in the southwest heavy summer monsoon rains did not materialize. Meteorologists also say the California megaflora is associated with long-term climate change.
Thursday’s national drought monitor shows that nearly 66% of the nation is in an abnormally dry state, the highest level since mid-March since 2002. And forecasts predict that they will get worse, expanding to parts of Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming and South Dakota, with small islands of relief in areas of the Great Lakes and New England.
More than 44% of the nation is in moderate or worse drought, and nearly 18% are in extreme or exceptional drought, all west of the Mississippi River. Climate scientists call what is happening in the West “megadrought” which began in 1999.
“Drought in almost the entire West is already quite severe due to its magnitude and intensity, and unfortunately it doesn’t seem likely that there will be much relief this spring,” said Daniel Swain, a UCLA climate scientist who writes the blog Weather West and no is not part of NOAA’s outlook. “Winter rainfall has been well below average in much of California and summer rainfall reached record lows in 2020 in the southwestern desert.”
With the Sierra Nevada snow package only 60% of normal levels, U.S. Department of Agriculture meteorologist Brad Rippey said “there will be some water and allocation cuts in California and maybe in other areas of the southwest ”for agriculture and other uses. It will likely affect nut crops in the Golden State.
Winter and spring wheat crops have also been hard hit by the western drought, with 78 percent of spring wheat production area in drought conditions, Rippey said.
Warm, dry conditions in the coming months will result in “an improved season of wildfires,” said Jon Gottschalck, head of NOAA’s forecasting branch.
Swain, from UCLA, said forest fires are unlikely to be as bad as in 2020, as so much vegetation has already burned and drought conditions have delayed regrowth. Last year, he said, the gunpowder was so massive that it will be difficult to beat it, although this fire season will likely be above average.
Drought and heat generate a vicious cycle. When it’s so dry, less energy from the sun is used to evaporate soil moisture because it’s not as humid, Swain said. This leaves more energy to heat the air and the heat worsens the drought by increasing evaporation.
“Across the West, it is clear that climate change has increased temperatures essentially year-round, which has slowed the mountain snow package and increased evaporation, substantially worsening the severity of drought conditions. in progress, ”he said.
In the next week or two, some parts of the central United States may suffer from heavy rain bags, but the question is whether this will be enough to offset the large rainfall deficits on last year’s high plains, the climatologist state of Nebraska, Martha Shulski said.
The reverse of the drought is that, for the first time in three years, NOAA projects zero major spring floods, with smaller amounts of mild to moderate flooding.
About 82 million people will be at risk of flooding this spring, most of them minors with no property damage. This has dropped from 128 million people last year.
Flooding is often a costly localized problem in the short term, while drought and wildfires affect larger areas and are longer lasting, according to NOAA climatologist Karin Gleason.
Since 1980, NOAA has tracked weather disasters which caused at least $ 1 billion in damages. The 28 droughts have caused nearly $ 259 billion in damage, while the 33 floods have cost about $ 151 billion.
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