Washington and Tehran will finally be able to reach a nuclear deal because Iran needs relief from economic sanctions, according to a senior adviser to a U.S. think tank.
“I think, ultimately, a deal is possible because the Iranians need money,” Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies said.
Both the United States and Iran seem interested in returning to the negotiating table, but have not been able to agree on who should take the first step. Last week, the Biden administration offered to start talks with Tehran, but Iran has repeatedly stressed that the U.S. must lift sanctions to begin the process. Washington has withstood these calls so far.
In addition, Iran’s new agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) “is certainly not useful” and it does not reach what was previously allowed, Goldberg said.
The Iranian parliament passed a law blocking IAEA inspections, but both sides said on Sunday that “necessary verification and control activities” could continue for up to three months.
Tan Feng Qin, of the Middle East Institute at Singapore National University, said Iran is aware that preventing inspections can have disadvantages.
The three-month payback “gives some space and time for the United States and Iran to try to find the solution to the sequencing problem,” he told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”
Goldberg is also optimistic that an agreement can be reached.
“Everything you see, all the threats, terrorism, threats to the Gulf, the confiscation of oil tankers, the nuclear program, the taking of hostages, are various extortion tactics to get money and get relief from sanctions,” he told CNBC. Monday “Squawk Box Asia”. “That means an agreement is possible.”
The Iranian foreign ministry did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Sanctions harming the Iranian economy
The heavy sanctions against Iran, imposed by the Trump administration after withdrawing from the 2015 agreement, have been devastating for Tehran’s economy.
According to the IMF, the last time Iran saw its GDP grow was in 2017 and the Islamic Republic only had access to $ 8.8 billion in foreign exchange reserves last year. This has dropped from $ 12.7 billion in 2019 to $ 121.6 billion in 2018.
“They are suffering the sanctions that President Trump imposed, the so-called campaign of maximum pressure,” Goldberg said.
“Clearly they need access to money, they need relief from sanctions and they want to push for a crisis to try to force Biden’s hand into some kind of talks that include relief from sanctions,” he added.
Still, questions remain about what the deal will look like.
Iran has said its violations of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) are reversible and can be reversed. But Goldberg disagreed.
“There are a lot of steps that are not reversible,” he said. “The technical knowledge they’ve acquired by testing advanced centrifuges, is something we can’t put back in the bottle.”
He also noted that the agreement came with expiration dates for the halting of the Iranian nuclear program.
“From [the JCPOA is] we are already five years old, we are not in the period when the agreement is for the benefit of Iran anyway, so it is a big question whether the Biden administration and its European and Asian allies want to return to an agreement or just hold on and negotiate a new agreement, ”he said.