All the things that could prolong the COVID-19 pandemic, that could make this virus a part of our lives longer than anyone wants, are playing out before our eyes.
The big picture: Right now, the United States continues to make great strides in vaccination. But as virus variants cause new outbreaks and infect more children, the United States is also getting a preview of what the future might hold if our vaccination pushes us to lose strength, as experts fear it may soon be.
Driving the news: The British variant is causing another increase in cases in Michigan and Governor Gretchen Whitmer has resisted imposing any of the blocking measures he previously adopted in the pandemic.
- Variants are beginning to infect more children, even as schools reopen, making the pandemic “a whole new ball game,” the University of Minnesota epidemiologist recently said. , Michael Osterholm.
- New research confirms that our existing vaccines do not work as well against the South African variant.
Between lines: This is a preview of the longer and darker future of coronavirus that the United States can face without enough vaccines, one that many experts consider quite likely.
- While the pace of vaccinations remains strong, fears are growing that it is about to slow down. In some parts of the country, particularly in the south, the demand for shots has already been reduced enough to create a surplus of available doses.
How it works: The more a virus can spread, the more chances it has to mutate. If the United States and ultimately the world do not vaccinate a sufficient percentage of the population, we will prepare to let the virus continue to spread and continue to mutate, continuing to give us new variants that will continue to pose new threats.
The concern is not necessarily that the current facts on the ground could end up being disastrous. Vaccines work against the British variant; the South African variant is not, at this time, a dominant strain in the United States; and finally, we will be able to vaccinate at least some children, helping the United States progress toward herd immunity.
- But if we do not control the virus well enough, even in future years, we could experience more variants, some of which would be more deadly, some of which would be more resistant to vaccines, some of which would be more dangerous for certain specific populations.
- This would result in a continuing risk of disease or life-threatening disease for unvaccinated people and new breeds to reformulate vaccines as new variants emerge.
- And it would lead to a world in which the population currently eager to be vaccinated would have to stay ahead of these emerging risks, receive booster shots when available, and perhaps reactivate some of the pandemic’s social distancing measures to stay . Safe-deposit box.
The summary: This darker future can be avoided and our abundant supply of highly effective vaccines is the way to prevent it. The more people are vaccinated now, the smaller the role of COVID-19 in the rest of our lives.
In depth: Explore the Axios coronavirus variant crawler