The Taliban’s military victory in Afghanistan is just the beginning of the group’s problems. The new government will fail because the Taliban cannot be pragmatic and ideological at the same time. The efforts of the Afghan jihadist movement to achieve a balance will be exploited by ISIS (a transnational jihadist movement) and other groups, which endanger regional and international security. When that happens, the U.S. and its allies will have to return to the war-torn nation.
ISIS, which has denounced the Taliban as a false jihadist movement, seeks to exploit the group’s internal tug-of-war between pragmatism and ideological compromise. Volatility is increasing with the mix of entities in Afghanistan, including ISIS, the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda. There is also debate over whether to build an emirate or a caliphate, with the Taliban pursuing an Islamic policy in Afghanistan while ISIS seeks a single state for the entire Muslim world.
The Taliban are trying to convince the world that their Emirate 2.0 will be different from the 1990s version. Meanwhile, ISIS staged a deadly attack on Thursday at Kabul airport, aimed at the site of the U.S.-led evacuation. Thirteen U.S. troops and about 200 Afghan civilians were killed.
Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met in Kabul on Monday with Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns. The CIA plays a major role in the air transportation of thousands of American citizens in the country. Separately, Taliban chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told the New York Times that Afghan women should remain at home until Taliban fighters have been trained not to mistreat them.
Both developments illustrate the enigma of the Taliban as they attempt to govern a nation that has experienced 20 years of Western-led modernization. The Taliban need the world to provide financial assistance, which depends on the recognition of the leaders of the new emirate. Hence the feverish effort to convince the world that the Taliban are pragmatic, despite being a radical Islamist entity.