The Mets are pondering whether to invest in a bigger item this offseason or add multiple players to delve deeper into the quality of the overall roster.
The significant piece may not be JT Realmuto free agent catcher unless they plan to turn James McCann into a $ 40 million backup. The Mets have not been connected in recent trade talks for Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant.
That leaves Trevor Bauer.
Or not. Steve Cohen has earned his billions as a risk assessment expert. The decision could be, for example, that the Mets could get the same number of wins by adding, for example, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brad Hand, taking on a much smaller financial commitment than Bauer by himself.
Or does Cohen see it: Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson with Noah Syndergaard on their wings? The Nationals won the World Series in 2019 with a rotation that looked like this and certainly less offense and bullpen than the Mets currently.
However, almost any Bauer deal would push the Mets beyond the $ 210 million luxury tax threshold, and Cohen has indicated he wants to stay below that number by 2021. Plus, because the Reds made the qualifying offer to Bauer and turned it down The Mets would lose their second option in the June draft and $ 500,000 in international money if they signed them. And the Mets are committed to trying to replenish their farming system.
This makes the signs of the Mets settle for adding the central player they wanted in Francisco Lindor. No one would be surprised if one day in spring training there was an alert for a press conference to announce Lindor’s new € 300 million extension and this is the big financial outlay this year. Between Lindor, Carrasco, McCann, Trevor May, the retention of Stroman and even a few more useful pieces, the Mets can trumpet a strong first off-season with Cohen, albeit with the disturbing revelations that led to the dismissal of the new GM Jared Porter. .
Still, Bauer flickers. It doesn’t escape me that when Sandy Alderson was hired as team president, she mentioned that she didn’t mind freaking out when asked about the bold Bauer. After all, Alderson was the guy who oversaw the Bash brothers of Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, and Dennis Eckersley three decades ago. Bauer has a huge presence on social media. Sometimes it has generated controversy. You can expect more as Bauer is determined to build his brand. But in doing so, the marginal advantage is that it also helps increase interest in baseball and can lead fans not aligned with a team to a new organization.
But at what cost will a team see if all this is true? At what risk?
The best players on the market, despite COVID-19, have so far been well treated. Maybe that won’t be true with Bauer. Due to lack of sustained excellence or concerns about personality.
However, until Bauer achieves the big payday (more than Max Scherzer’s seven years at $ 210 million, perhaps north of Stephen Strasburg’s seven years at $ 245 million), I think it will remain a goal of his field and a possibility. A few years ago, Bryce Harper faced a brief commitment but with an annual record value from the Dodgers or less per year, but much more money from the Phillies. Like most players, Harper took home the biggest guarantee: $ 330 million in 13 years.
Bauer can cope very well with the puzzle itself, in part because the Dodgers at least hide it. And Bauer is rare (perhaps unique). He has so much belief in his training methods that he has talked about wanting to go short or even year after year and get back on the market. Japanese ace Tomoyuki Sugano recently re-signed with the Yomiuri Giants for four years, but with the possibility of retiring after each season to preserve his right to try to come to MLB sooner. Bauer might ask for something similar: a shorter term for less money in general, but with the option to go out to pursue the longer money annually if you wish.
But it would mean that taking less money is generally not initial, unless the average value exceeds Gerrit Cole’s current record of $ 36 million a year. Would there be any team for, say, four years at $ 160 million for the NL Cy Young 2020 winner?
The Dodgers? The Blue Jays? I keep wondering about the twins. They have been chasing high-end beginners in recent years, such as Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler, without securing them. His head of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, had Bauer in Cleveland and knows all the techniques Bauer advocated that brought animus early in his term Indians have become the mainstream of the game now, and that Bauer had a useful will and a positive impact on beginners such as Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger.
If relationships are important (and they usually are), the GM twins Thad Levine and one of Bauer’s agents, Jon Fetterolf, were co-captains of the 1993 Haverford College baseball team, though the captain of the 1992 team Dodgers executive Josh Byrnes is even closer to Fetterolf. Yes, he always looks at the Dodgers.
But should we watch out for the Mets? Cohen obviously has the money. Do you want the risk?