A poster explaining the mask requirements for a mixing board establishment in Tampa, Florida, on Dec. 19.
Photo:
Ivy Ceballo / Zuma Press
The new coronavirus is about to reach its last major position, so get ready for the toughest six weeks so far. But things will look up as spring approaches. Stay safe and try to avoid being the last person to get sick from Covid-19.
Next year will still require caution, but fear of Covid will not dominate life after winter recedes. The prevalence will decrease sharply in spring and summer. The virus can reappear in the fall, but can be a manageable threat with proper precautions.
That said, relegating the pandemic to 2020 will require some changes. The virus is likely to become endemic, meaning it will continue to circulate but at a much lower level than the epidemic. If we’re cautious, next fall might seem like a particularly virulent flu season in which vaccines don’t match. Most of the activities that Americans enjoy will be resumed, although some of them will require precautions.
This starts with changes in the way people go to work. He should be frowned upon to come to work sick and try to “solve” a cold. Flu and Covid tests will be generalized with home tests. Many people may prefer to wear masks in public places, but it will not be necessary. We will pay more attention to indoor ventilation and crowding in small spaces.
These steps will have advantages that go beyond Covid. They will also slow the spread of other respiratory infections, including the flu, which carries a huge toll each year. The flu caused more than 40 million symptomatic illnesses and 650,000 hospitalizations in the 2018-19 season, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A 2018 study in the journal Vaccine estimates that economic damage, including reduced productivity, is $ 11.2 billion a year. This figure may be conservative; some models say the load is up to $ 87 billion annually.
Priorities for next year will be to distribute the vaccines widely, hopefully, to all Americans eligible for spring, while safety and benefit information continues to be collected. It will also be essential to provide easy access to vaccination, preparing pharmacies to offer the Covid vaccine as flu vaccines. If a high percentage of the most vulnerable populations are vaccinated, this would drastically reduce the risk of Covid. The benefits will be even greater if, as expected, vaccines not only reduce the risk of severe symptoms, but also reduce the chances of becoming infected and spreading them around.
Next year it will adjust to a new normal. Society will not return to its 2019 respiratory pathogen management strategy, but that is not a bad thing. The response to the pandemic has been affected by a vocal minority that dismissed Covid’s risks and fought measures like masks. This challenging stance will have to change to return to a normal appearance in 2021. But with sensitive measures, drugs and vaccines, Covid can become a manageable risk.
Dr. Gottlieb is a resident member of the American Enterprise Institute and was commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, 2017-19. He serves on the boards of Pfizer and Illumina and is a partner in venture capital firm New Enterprise Associates.
Wonder Land: Leading epidemiologists have teamed up to write “The Great Barrington Declaration,” which urges a “Protection-focused” strategy in coronavirus management, and which has already been signed by thousands of scientists. Images: Getty Composite: Mark Kelly
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It appeared in the December 28, 2020 print edition as “Covid Begins Its Last Support.”