ABU DHABI, UAE: When Conor McGregor participates, there is always a potential for hyperbole. When you have such a big star, everything tends to score first hand, including comments related to it or a future fight. But let me say that I have really been waiting for this moment since the end of 2016.
If all this comes to fruition, only time will tell. But I think we could finally realize McGregor’s true fighting potential in 2021. If we go back to the end of 2016, McGregor was the reigning featherweight and lightweight champion. He had avenged his loss of submission against Nate Diaz. He was not considered the absolute best fighter in the world, but he was on the radar for that honor.
Of course, we all know what happened next. McGregor (22-4), who fights Dustin Poirier in an untitled lightweight fight at UFC 257 on Saturday in Abu Dhabi (main card at 22:00 ET, buy here on pay-per-view), chased a lucrative match boxing against Floyd Mayweather in 2017, ran into several legal issues, lost a championship fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018, didn’t fight at all in 2019 and competed once in 2020 for less than a minute.
And frankly, all of this is not hard to understand. McGregor reached unprecedented levels of fame in 2016 and charged with the Mayweather struggle. That match was entertaining and paid McGregor more than any MMA fight would have, but it was also a farce and a monumental pivot of what MMA could have achieved.
It’s wild to think: McGregor has been a member of the UFC since 2013 and it could be argued that he has only participated twice in his most natural weight class. His featherweight cut was manageable but brutal. And it doesn’t even come close to the average size of a welterweight. McGregor is lightweight and we saw him compete there only in 2016, when he won the Eddie Alvarez belt, and in 2018, when he failed to get it back against Nurmagomedov.
Look, we know who McGregor is as a famous, public figure. It has had an obvious impact on the complete combat sport industry as well as in the whole sports media industry. And we also know a lot about him as a fighter. We know he has great talent. We know he was the first UFC “champion”. We know it’s good, even great.
But we don’t know how big it is. This is the part that remains to be defined. If he had ever strayed into the world of a “money fight” with Mayweather and more or less disappeared from the competition afterwards, what could he have done? Did he defend the lightweight championship several times? Do you have the challenge of a third belt? I might even have it batut Nurmagomedov in different circumstances, if he had kept all the momentum of 2016?
I really hope we are about to find out. McGregor has repeatedly said he is committed to this 155-pound frame and wants to be active by 2021. We know McGregor is an amazing fighter. I want to know this year exactly how amazing it can be.
By the numbers
6: Light eliminations for Poirier, tying him as third in the history of the division, behind Melvin Guillard and Edson Barboza.
91: Percentage of McGregor wins that ended with finishes (19 playoffs and a presentation in 22 wins).
1.95: Eliminations every 15 minutes in the McGregor cage, the eighth highest rate in UFC history.
6.45: Significant attacks landed per minute in the Octagon for Poirier, the third-most important in UFC history, behind just 7.46 from Justin Gaethje and 6.83 from TJ Grant.
8: Pay-per-view events led by McGregor since 2015, including this one. Only Daniel Cormier (9) has done it more. This will be the fourth major McGregor PPV event in which untitled wrestling, the largest number of people in the last ten years.
Sources: ESPN statistics and information and UFC statistics
A look back
Since then …
Five against five
The most recent results from Dustin Poirier
Winner: Dan Hooker (UD, June 27, 2020; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Sub3, September 7, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Winner: Max Holloway (UD, April 13, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Winner: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, July 28, 2018)
Winner: Justin Gaethje (TKO4, April 14, 2018)
Most recent results from Conor McGregor
Win: Donald Cerrone (TKO1, January 18, 2020; watch ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (sub4, October 6, 2018; watch on ESPN +)
Winner: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, November 12, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Nate Diaz (MD, August 20, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Nate Diaz (Sub2, March 5, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Film studio by Dom & Gil
Dominick Cruz why Poirier-McGregor 1 went his own way:
Gilbert Melendez on how Poirier-McGregor 2 can go differently:
And the winner is …
“I think Poirier will try to fight smart and win a mixed martial arts fight, not turn it into a permanent battle or a battle,” says Urijah Faber, the famous UFC Hall. “Conor has been very impressive in terms of his athleticism. It looks like he’s being taken very seriously. I’m leaning back next to Conor.”
Faber is one of several fighters and coaches who have influenced analysis and predictions. See what they had to say here.
A deeper dive into a breakdown of the fight is made: ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez, Strikeforce’s double lightweight champion and former WEC lightweight champion. His starting point: that this is revenge.
“McGregor got the best out of Poirier years ago,” Meléndez writes, “and no matter what happens, that will weigh heavily on the mindsets of both fighters.”
How to watch fights
See the steps before ESPN or ESPN +: Download the ESPN | application WatchESPN | TV
Don’t have ESPN? Get instant access.
Don’t have ESPN + for preliminaries and PPV? Get it here.
Have you bought the fight on your phone and want to play it on your TV? Find out how here.
There is also FightCenter, which offers live updates for all UFC cards.
Saturday fight card
PPV (via ESPN +), 22:00 ET
Dustin Poirier v. Conor McGregor | Light
Dan Hooker v Michael Chandler | Light
Jessica Eye v. Joanne Calderwood | Female fly weight
Andrew Sanchez v. Makhmud Muradov | Average weight
Marina Rodriguez v. Amanda Ribas | Straw weight
ESPN / ESPN +, 20.00 ET
Matt Frevola vs. Arman Tsarukyan | Light
Brad Tavares against Antonio Carlos Junior | Average weight
Julianna Pena v Sara McMann | Female glove weight
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Marcin Prachnio | Light heavy weight
ESPN +, 19.00 ET
Movsar Evloev Vs. Nik Lentz | Heavy weight (150 lbs)
Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Male fly weight
The co-main event raises the curtain on a champion
Michael Chandler, the former Bellator lightweight champion, makes his Octagon debut in the UFC 257 co-major event, facing Dan Hooker, who is ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s lightweight ranking. Chandler is number 7.
Chandler will be the ninth former Bellator champion to move to the UFC, and the previous eight will go 5-3 in their debuts. Winners: Alexander Volkov, Lyman Good, Ben Askren, Will Brooks and Zach Makovsky. Those who lost: Hector Lombard, Eddie Alvarez and Joe Soto.
Alvarez is the only former Bellator champion to win a UFC title.
A couple of notable figures, or, why the judges may not even need to bother occupying their seats next to the cage: Chandler has finished in 76% of his professional fights (nine qualifiers and seven appearances in 21 wins), and Hooker’s finish rate is 85% (10 playoffs and seven submissions in 20 professional wins).
Two more things to know (from ESPN Statistics and Information)
1. Joanne Calderwood, who faces Jessica Eye, the 2019 title challenger, has scored 444 significant tackles in her UFC career, the third-most important in the history of the female flyweight. Calderwood is No. 5 in the ESPN ranking of the 125-pound division.
2. To open the main menu there is a clash between the top Brazilian weights, Marina Rodriguez, who ranks No. 8 in the ESPN rankings at 115 pounds, and Amanda Ribas, who is 4-0 at the Octagon. Rodriguez comes from his first defeat in the race, a split decision defeat against former champion Carla Esparza in July. Ribas has finished in seven of his 10 professional victories (four submissions, three qualifiers).
ESPN’s Jeff Wagenheim contributed to this preview of the fight.