Uranium metal production called “provocative”

Iran’s latest action in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal has caught the attention of international powers, increasing the stakes to return to the multinational agreement, as it demands the lifting of northern sanctions -American.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations nuclear watchdog, confirmed last week a report that Iran has begun producing uranium metal, a step that violates the parameters of the agreement. of 2015 – also known as JCPOA – which lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for braking. to its nuclear program.

Unenriched uranium metal has little civilian use and is different from enriched uranium, which can be used for nuclear power.

Iran says the activity is intended to produce fuel for a research reactor. IAEA inspectors confirmed a tiny volume of 3.6 grams (0.1 ounces) of substance in an Isfahan facility, the size of a thimble.

But some have raised alarm in the international community, as more metal (about half a kilogram, according to experts) can be used to build the core of a nuclear bomb.

“This is one of the most serious nuclear steps they have taken,” a former Obama administration official involved in the original JCPOA negotiations, referring to Iran, told CNBC. “It’s pretty provocative.” The ex-officer spoke on condition of anonymity due to professional restrictions when speaking to the press.

The United Kingdom, France and Germany, all supporters of the JCPOA, said in January that Iran “has no credible civilian use for uranium metal.” They described the news as “deeply worrying”.

“Metal uranium production has potentially serious military implications,” they warned.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior member of the Washington-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the Europeans’ statement is significant.

“You know you have problems when Europeans don’t buy the ‘civil use’ argument proposed by Tehran. That’s what the alarms should sound like,” he said.

Iran has been increasing its compliance with the JCPOA since May 2019, a year after the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement and began imposing heavy “maximum pressure” sanctions on the country for what it described as its destabilizing regional activities.

Tehran’s moves included, more recently, increasing uranium enrichment and storage levels beyond the limits set in the agreement, in an effort to pressure Washington to lift sanctions – which have paralyzed the economy. Iran – and return to the agreement, which has been the administration of Biden. he expressed his desire to do.

It is important to note that Iranian officials stress that the moves are reversible and have held out hope of returning to the agreement under Biden. But the White House says Iran must first fully comply with the agreement again, while Iran says U.S. sanctions must be lifted first, establishing a possible stalemate.

Still, regional experts believe the nuclear deal can still be recovered.

Iran “is trying to stress the importance it has for them to get the U.S. back into the JCPOA,” the former Obama official said. “I don’t think this at all undermines the possibility of returning to the JCPOA, but it’s worrisome.”

Aniseh Tabrizi, a senior researcher and expert in Iran at the Royal United Services Institute, agreed.

“It’s reversible, especially if it’s done in the short term,” he said of Iran’s uranium metal production. “There has been condemnation, but there is no sign that it will end any attempt to revive talks on the JCPOA.”

Meanwhile, however, “Iran has the ability to put significant pressure in the short term” on the other signatories to the agreement, said Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the North African Middle East program at Chatham House. a UK think tank.

“But in the long run, “he said,” it is the United States that must be brought to the discussions of the joint commission, “because the United States is central to the alliance of the agreement and the sanctions for the ‘Iran.

A key date to watch out for is February 21, when the new laws passed by the Iranian parliament will come into force, which include a ruling preventing further IAEA inspections. But it is crucial, Vakil said, that the crisis be contained before Iran’s June elections.

“If the international community is really interested in containing this crisis with Iran, it is imperative to deploy the JCPOA compliance strategy and launch a plan to talk to Iran and the joint commission,” he said. “The sooner they can deploy it, the better they will be able to mitigate Iran’s efforts to increase the advantage.”

For FDD’s Ben Taleblu, Iranian tactics are so far dangerous and useless. “Tehran’s continued nuclear escalation means its new violations are necessarily more dangerous,” he said. “Despite Iran’s escalation strategy, neither Trump’s team nor Biden has reversed the course of major economic sanctions.”