US, allies await the unknown from North Korea

In Seoul, national security officials intensified surveillance of indications that the Kim Jong Un regime was preparing a major arms test.

But as the days passed, Seoul’s political leaders began to see signs suggesting that North Korea planned to let Christmas Day pass without a major escalation, according to people reporting on South Korean thinking.

Now American, South Korean and Japanese officials are faced with a familiar question: what will North Korea do and when will it?

Many of these officials and analysts are waiting for Mr. Kim’s New Year’s speech, in which he traditionally describes North Korea’s priorities for next year, to get clues as to whether Pyongyang will resume provocative weapons testing. .

An intercontinental ballistic missile test conducted by North Korea could pose a major challenge to President Trump during the election year. It would also announce a return to the North Korean confrontation after more than a year and a half of diplomatic attempts that eased tensions but failed to make the necessary progress in the dispute over nuclear and missile programs. of the North.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun tried to fuel diplomacy last week during a trip to Seoul and Beijing, but none of the participants reported a breakthrough. Talks remain stagnant despite three meetings over the past 19 months between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim.

Kim pledged in April 2018, ahead of the first summit, to stop long-range missile testing. It has fulfilled that promise, even as North Korea has continued to conduct short-range missile tests and develop other aspects of its advanced weapons programs.

But in April 2020, when diplomacy collapsed, Mr. Kim gave the United States a deadline to end the year (now just a few days away) to break the deadlock in talks on missiles and nuclear . He suggested that Pyongyang would take a more confrontational path if Washington did not offer concessions.

On Dec. 17, General Charles Brown, chief of the U.S. Pacific Air Force, said U.S. uncertainty over North Korea’s next action said he hoped Mr. Kim would conduct a “missile” test. long-range ballistics, ”but that left the moment open.

“Is Christmas Eve coming? Is Christmas Day coming? Is it coming after the new year? One of my responsibilities is to pay attention to that, ”General Brown said.

“I think there is also the possibility that the self-imposed moratorium will disappear and nothing will happen immediately. He announces it but then doesn’t fire, ”General Brown added.

Meanwhile, North Korea has stepped up pressure.

In mid-December, he said he had recently conducted the second of two unspecified tests at its Sohae satellite launch base.

The North Korean state-controlled media also said the country would hold a year-end plenary of its ruling Labor Party this month, to decide on “crucial issues.”

Some South Korean officials said they believed a major North Korean arms test could not arrive until Feb. 16, when the country celebrates the birthday of Mr. Kim’s late father, Kim Jong Il, as annual festivals.

“North Korea will expect any change in the US negotiating stance until then. If they don’t see changes, North Korea could test long-range missiles or submarine-based missiles, ”said one person who reported on South American thinking.

Victor Cha, who was President George W. Bush’s top Asian adviser, said there is probably still a few months ’window to diplomacy.

North Korea, he said, wants to break free of trade sanctions imposed in 2016 and 2017. And a long-range missile test would anger China, Pyongang’s closest ally. “They’re also inside a box,” Mr. Cha said, now in the think tank at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

However, a CSIS survey of five North Korean test sites, conducted with satellite imagery, shows a certain level of activity in each, Cha said, suggesting that Pyongyang could order a test with very little warning.

Any evidence, he added, would aim to demonstrate the “survival” of the North’s nuclear deterrent, meaning the U.S. could not destroy it in a first strike and escape retaliation from the North. A launch of ballistic missiles fired by submarines or a test of a solid fuel engine for a long-range missile would fit that bill.

Solid-fuel rockets can prepare for launch much faster than liquid-fuel rockets, decreasing the chances of them being destroyed in an opponent’s first attack.

U.S. defense officials would not confirm reports from an aviation monitoring website showing the growing use of reconnaissance aircraft by the military to control North Korea, other than to say that the Navy deployed this plane to the Korean peninsula on Thursday night, local time.

Independent observers described the aircraft as a P-3C Orion, a four-engine maritime surveillance aircraft.

Over the past month, U.S. military officials have offered several predictions of what a North Korean movement might look like. In early December, defense officials feared a possible test by the ICBM. But as Christmas approached, the Pentagon talked more and more about something more limited, such as a short-range missile or an engine test, a naval exercise, or even a fiery speech.

The Pentagon’s predictions for possible North Korean action have also changed, with Pyongyang action now considered more likely after the New Year, perhaps on Kim Jong Un’s birthday on January 8 or until mid-February, around Mr. Kim’s father’s birthday.

There is a “level of uncertainty,” a U.S. defense official explained.

“One of the most important things to remember is that North Korea is manipulating us,” said Joseph Bermudez, also of the CSIS, where he is a senior image analyst. “They know how to press the right administration buttons.”

If North Korea did not deliver anything beyond a heavily worded speech, Bermudez said, “they will say they are taking the road.”

—Nancy A. Youssef in Washington and Chieko Tsuneoka in Tokyo contributed to this article.

Write to Warren P. Strobel to [email protected] and Andrew Jeong to [email protected]