A photo distributed by the German government press office of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Joe Biden is in the White House overlooking the Washington Monument on July 15, 2021 in Washington, DC .
Guido Bergmann | Brochure | Getty Images News | Getty Images
LONDON – After four years of tension under former President Donald Trump, relations between the United States and Germany were already at a crossroads. Now, experts say the current crisis in Afghanistan may add fuel to the fire.
The election of President Joe Biden in November boosted hopes of a transatlantic realignment between the two economic power plants, but analysts say that despite some encouraging rhetoric, many key issues still need to be addressed.
“We see a lot of positive signs: there have been big moves from the Biden administration, there has been a lot of communication and dialogue with round-trip visits and [German Chancellor] Angela Merkel having been to Washington. So it’s absolutely positive, even though we don’t have tangible results yet, ”Simone Menne, president of the American Chamber of Commerce, told CNBC earlier this month.
“There are still a couple of things to resolve, which means tariffs on steel and aluminum, which means a travel ban and data exchange,” he added.
The European Union, which has Germany as its largest economy, announced in May that it would not introduce a second round of tariffs planned for US products. The measure was designed to allow for dialogue about the steel and aluminum duties that were imposed during the Trump presidency. But European trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis told FT in July it would be a future the agreement may not reach the mutual suspension of all tariffs.
In addition, the EU decided in June to open its doors to U.S. travelers as the health situation improved in both regions. However, Biden has not yet taken the reciprocal step, which has upset some European officials.
On the German side, his government also decided to continue with a Russian gas pipeline, the Nord Stream 2 project, despite opposition from American politicians.
“The US-Germany relationship has changed in tone but not yet in substance,” Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Germany, told CNBC via email.
Afghan crisis
More recently, Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan and the consequent rapid capture of the country by the Taliban has angered many in Europe. Some politicians, including in Germany, see these developments as a problem for the political and moral credibility of Western nations.
Although Merkel has not publicly criticized her American counterpart, she said developments in Afghanistan were “bitter, dramatic and terrifying,” according to German media.
His successor as leader of the Conservative CDU party, Armin Laschet, went a step further, claiming that the withdrawal of international troops is “the biggest debacle NATO has suffered since its founding.”
Now Germany realizes that the Biden administration is clearly more respectful of the EU and that it uses a more polite tone, but that it keeps the United States first and the rest of the world second.
Carsten Brzeski
economist, ING Germany
“The political cost of this situation for Merkel and her government will be high. This may not reflect well the relationship between the United States and Germany,” Erik Jones, a professor of European studies at Johns Hopkins University, told CNBC. .
He added, however, that “the two governments will be too distracted by the internal consequences of the Afghan situation to worry too much at this time about the implications for their bilateral ties.”
Brzeski added that “Germany is realizing that the Biden administration is clearly more respectful of the EU and uses a more polite tone, but that it keeps the United States first and the rest of the world second.”
Coordinated response?
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, convened an emergency meeting of the G-7 on Tuesday to coordinate the responses of Western leaders to the crisis in Afghanistan.
But not everyone is convinced that coordination is possible.
“The pace of events [in Afghanistan] it surprised everyone, ”Tina Fordham, head of global political strategy at Avonhurst, a consulting firm, said Monday.
The reality is that for some years now, as the uncoordinated response to the pandemic has clearly shown, the major G-7 nations have not been able to agree on a common framework to address many issues. “
He said Western leaders will want it seen to prevent the worst of a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, but that any action can have far-reaching consequences.
“What I think is not appreciated as much as they should be, whether by market participants or G-7 leaders, is how this advance with the fall of Afghanistan could be quite significant for the political risk for the our own internal environments, ”he added.