A woman reacts when inoculated with a dose of Covishield vaccine against Covid-19 at a Bombay vaccination center on August 12, 2021.
PUNIT PARANJPE | AFP | Getty Images
The global economy will lose trillions of GDP due to the delay in vaccination deadlines, with developing economies that will bear most of the losses due to uneven deployment, the Economist Intelligence Unit said in a report.
Countries that are unable to inoculate 60% of their population by mid-2022 will lose $ 2.3 trillion between 2022 and 2025, the IUU predicted.
“Emerging countries will account for about two-thirds of these losses, further delaying their economic convergence with more developed countries,” wrote Agathe Demarais, IUU’s global director of forecasts.
There is little chance that the division in access to vaccines will ever be overcome.
Agathe Demarais
Director of Global Forecasting of the Economist Intelligence Unit
Asia will be “by far the most severely affected continent” in absolute terms, with projected losses reaching $ 1.7 trillion, or 1.3% of the region’s projected GDP. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa will lose about 3% of their projected GDP, the highest in percentage terms, according to the report.
“These estimates are staggering, but they only partially capture the lost economic opportunities, especially in the long run,” said the EIU, which noted that the effect of the pandemic on education was not taken into account in this forecast. . Richer countries pivoted on remote learning during the blockades, but many of the developing countries did not have this option.
More than 213 million people have been infected with Covid-19 and at least 4.4 million have died during the pandemic, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University.
Division between rich and poor
Wealthy nations are making great strides in their Covid inoculation rates, moving toward booster doses and reopening their economies, while poorer countries are drastically lagging behind in the race to get vaccinated.
About 5 billion doses of the vaccine have been administered worldwide as of Aug. 23, but only 15.02 million of those doses were in low-income countries, according to Our World in Data.
“Vaccination campaigns are advancing at a glacial pace in lower-income economies,” the ISU report said.
The report said vaccine inequality arose due to the global shortage of vaccine production capacity and raw materials, logistical difficulties in transporting and storing vaccines, and hesitation due to vaccination. distrust of shots.
Many developing countries are also unable to afford vaccines for their residents and sought donations from richer countries, but global initiatives have not been entirely successful in delivering shots to those in need.
“There is little chance that the division in access to vaccines will ever be overcome,” EIU Demarais said in a statement. “COVAX, the WHO-sponsored initiative to send vaccines to emerging economies, has not met (modest) expectations. “
“Despite flattering press releases and generous promises, donations from rich countries have also covered only a fraction of the requirements and are often not even delivered,” he wrote.
Covax was aiming to deliver around 2 billion doses of vaccine this year, but so far has only sent 217 million doses, according to the UNICEF tracker.
Some supplies went to developed countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, the Associated Press reported.
Impact of inequality
Poor countries are likely to recover from the pandemic more slowly, especially if restrictions need to be reinstated due to lower vaccination rates, the ISU said.
Tourists can also avoid countries with large unvaccinated populations due to security concerns, while political resentment is likely to grow, according to the report. Residents could be unhappy that their local governments could not provide vaccines and see richer states as hoarders of gunfire.
“Problems of social unrest are very likely to occur in the coming months and years,” Demarais wrote.
In addition, the virus situation continues to evolve, with herd immunity probably out of reach due to the highly transmissible delta variant, and vaccination seeks “more modestly” to reduce serious cases, hospitalizations and deaths, according to the report.
Political leaders were busy responding to short-term emergencies, such as rapid accelerations in infection rates, but now they need to design a long-term strategy, Demarais wrote.
“Here, again, the contrast between rich and poor will be sharp: the richest and most vaccinated states will have options, while the poorest and most unvaccinated will not,” he said.