As the United States continues to distribute the first COVID-19 vaccines, a viral tweet shared what they said were “COVID-19 survival rates” from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to minimize the severity of the virus and the need for get vaccinated.
“CDC COVID-19 survival rates,” said the emoji-filled tweet from Emma Jiménez, a conservative blogger and activist. “Age 0-19 – 99.997%. Age 20-49 – 99.98%. Age 50-69 – 99.5%. Age 70+ – 94.6%. Why is a COVID-19 vaccine so removed? aggressive? Hmmmm. “
Screenshots of the tweet were also shared on Facebook and Instagram, where they were tagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat fake news and misinformation on its news channel.
However, the age-specific “survival rates” listed in the post did not come from CDC. CDC spokeswoman Jasmine Reed told PolitiFact that the agency has not published any age-specific COVID-19 survival rates nor does it have mortality rates available.
“Survival analysis is very complex,” Reed said. “CDC has no data to calculate the survival of COVID-19. It is unclear what information users of social media will get.”
“We don’t have that data, so we don’t know it,” added Cindy Prins, an epidemiologist at the University of Florida. “And neither would the person who posted (the tweet).”
Incomplete supply
The tweet did not cite any specific CDC source for its “COVID-19 survival rates.” PolitiFact tried to reach Jiménez via messages on his Twitter and Facebook accounts of Latin conservatives, but we knew nothing.
The figures align with the parameters included as part of the CDC planning scenarios designed to help public health agencies model the impact of the pandemic.
In a September paper entitled “COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios,” the agency listed five sets of parameters that represented different levels of disease severity and transmissibility, with the goal of helping health agencies to make models to estimate the effects of the virus.
Infection mortality rates listed in the scenario marked as “best current estimate” correspond to the “survival rates” shown in the tweet. But these infection mortality rates, according to the document, are based on data up to August 8th. And there are other warnings.
Lead Stories rejected a Facebook post citing the same scenarios for erroneously claiming that the CDC had reduced the severity of COVID-19 to less than the flu.
The CDC paper says the scenarios “are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19” and “do not reflect the impact of any behavior change, social distancing, or other interventions.” He also says that “uncertainty remains around almost all parameter values.”
The tweet also ignored the toll that can have a seemingly small mortality rate when a disease spreads uncontrollably. Johns Hopkins University places the proportion of observed mortality (calculated as the number of known deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases) at approximately 1.8% for the United States. At this rate, if every American had COVID-19, there would be nearly 6 million deaths.
Doctors have improved the treatment of the disease since the pandemic broke out, PolitiFact reported. But the number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths reported daily in the U.S. has skyrocketed in recent weeks. The “excess of deaths” remains above historical norms. The risk of serious coronavirus disease increases with age, according to the CDC.
Survival rates are difficult to estimate
In a pandemic, it’s hard to nail down data points like survival rates, Prins told PolitiFact. These rates are usually calculated over a longer period of time than as a snapshot.
“Deaths and notification of deaths lag behind in identifying new cases, sometimes for months, so we never catch up on who has“ survived ”unless we set a time period that we are looking at. , as we do with five- annual survival rates in cancers or the disease disappears and we can look back at the pandemic in general, ”Prins said.
In addition, we know that there are side effects of COVID-19 such as myocarditis that may appear well after ‘recovery’, but that can cause death at this later time, so both survival rates and rates mortality rates are more accurate after a while. “
A widespread vaccination effort would prevent more deaths, protect people from serious illness, slow the spread, and put the U.S. on a path to normalcy.
PolitiFact ruling
A tweet said that “CDC COVID-19 survival rates” are 99.997% for people 0 to 19 years, 99.98% for people 20 to 49 years, 99.5% for people from 50 to 69 years and 94.6% for people over 70 years.
The CDC has not released survival rates and does not have the data to do so. It’s unclear where the numbers from the tweet came from, but they correspond to the figures listed as part of the CDC “planning scenarios” used to plan a response to a pandemic.
We appreciate that this post is false.