Virginia voters will give Democrats and Republicans the first indications of the political landscape ahead of next year’s midterm elections when they go to the polls in eight weeks.
The tent showdown is an expensive race for the governor between former Carlyle Group chief executive Glenn Youngkin (R) and Terry McAuliffe (D), who want to return to Richmond after four years away from the governor’s mansion.
But the most revealing test will come in smaller and lower elections on the radar for seats in the House of Representatives. Democrats occupy 55 of the 100 seats running in the November election, contests that may come close to what appears to be an upward battle to maintain control of the House of Representatives in Washington in a year.
Delegated elections “certainly can sometimes play the role of canary in the coal mine. And I think that’s even more true now, since our elections have been nationalized at all levels, “said Tucker Martin, who was the top aide to former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R).” If there are trends in development, you will see some in the results. “
Democrats lost half a dozen seats in Virginia’s 1993 election, a year before congressional control changed hands in the 1994 Republican revolution. House of Representatives in 1999, a year before George W. Bush became the first Republican president since Eisenhower took office with control of the House and Senate (although Democrats regained control of the Senate after a party switch).
More recently, Virginia Democrats won huge gains in the 2017 election just after the previous ones. President Trump
Donald Trump Spotlight addresses GOP McCarthy on January 6th. Less than 50% of West Virginians consider the 2020 election legitimate: poll The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Questions on Biden’s agenda; unemployment benefits end MORE he won the White House, a year before his party regained control of the House of Representatives. And Democrats regained control of Richmond in 2019, a year before Trump lost re-election.
Now, with Trump off the stage, Democrats say they are presenting this year the results they achieved in the first two years with full control since Douglas Wilder was governor in the early 1990s.
“I think we’ve done amazing and transformative things in Virginia over the last two years,” Del said. Alex Askew (D), who represents a swing district in Virginia Beach. “We can’t afford to go back to 20 years of Republican leadership.”
But the Democratic margin for error is small: Askew is one of seven Democrats who won his seat by less than 5 percentage points in 2019. Eight more Democrats won between 5 and 10 points.
And Republicans are more than happy to talk about what Democrats achieved through their own goal.
“If we re-adopt a party rule over the next two years, what we saw in 2020, once we get both houses, will go much further,” said Otto Wachsmann (R), a pharmacist who challenges Del. Roslyn Tyler (D) in a district that runs along the North Carolina border. “We just have to make a change.”
Both sides are targeting key races in the suburbs and suburbs of northern Virginia, the economic engine of a state that has shifted to the left in recent decades; on Hampton Roads, perpetual swing territory; and in the suburbs of Richmond, a microcosm of a wider electorate that regularly swaps its votes between parties.
Republicans have seized on an emerging debate over critical race theory in public schools, in a state where school board meetings in places like the rich Loudoun County have caught the attention of Fox News. And some Republicans have accused their Democratic opponents of harboring ambitions to defuse police, following several votes on limiting qualified immunity taken in the wake of protests over the assassination of George Floyd last year in Minneapolis.
“A lot of people really like to support law enforcement and it’s interesting that my opponent has voted not once, but twice to remove qualified immunity,” Wachsmann said. “When he voted to detune and remove qualified immunity, most sheriffs called me in 12 hours.”
But Democrats have slammed those attacks by offering salary increases to police and other front-line workers harmed during the pandemic. Askew, one of the few candidates to have posted a TV ad in contests that typically have a low budget, announces the pay rise alongside his work to limit insulin prices.
“Since the beginning of the pandemic, we’ve been on the front lines helping the people of District 85,” Askew told The Hill. “Not everything has to be performative.”
Recent election results have not been kind to Virginia Republicans: the party has not won a state election since Ken Cuccinelli (R) won the attorney general’s office and Bill Bolling (R) won a second term as lieutenant. governor in 2009. In 2018, three Democrats ousted current Republican members of Congress and all three representatives. Elaine Luria
Elaine Goodman: The LuriaVirginia races offer a preview of the Democrats ’medium-term challenges. House panel approves B increase for defense budget Night defense and national security: America’s longest war ends MORE (D), Abigail Spanberger
Abigail Davis SpanbergerVirginia’s races offer an early advance on Democrats’ medium-term challenges House moderates call on Biden to reconsider August 31 evacuation deadline A progressive path forward MORE (D) i Jennifer Wexton
Jennifer Lynn Wexton: Virginia races offer a glimpse of Democrats’ medium-term challenges Relatives of the Fall Capitol police officer are urging Congress to accept the Jan. 6 commission. (D): won re-election in 2020.
Trump managed to win only 44% of the vote in both 2016 and 2020, the lowest total for a Republican presidential candidate in the old domain since Richard Nixon in 1968, an election in which George Wallace won nearly 24 % of votes as independent.
But polls show that the Republican path to a majority is not far-fetched: voters favor a generic Democratic candidate over a generic Republican with only a 48% to 45% margin, according to a University of Monmouth poll released in late last month (To Christopher Newport The university poll placed the Democratic lead at 7 points, from 50% to 43%).
With Trump out of the picture and Democrats at the helm of a turbulent world in both Washington and Richmond, the party’s streak of victories is suddenly in line. And both Democrats and Republicans say they will be watching closely for information about the coming interim periods.
“Virginia’s results will provide a clear view of grassroots turnout after Trump and whether Republicans are able to stop their slide among college-educated voters,” said Jared Leopold, a Democratic strategist who has advised candidates of Virginia. “Republicans lost control of suburban and exurban localities like Virginia Beach, Stafford County and Chesterfield County, and these are exactly the battlefields of state legislative races in 2021.”