We should not end the restrictions until we reach 10,000 cases a day, or considerably less

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It should be emphasized that he is speaking (I think) of the reference point for finishing completely pandemic restrictions. He is willing to do it reduce the size restrictions on higher levels of community outreach, as long as we don’t get rid of them altogether.

And even Texas hasn’t. The mandate of the mask has been lifted and companies are open at full capacity, but local authorities have the power to enact new regulations based on the number of recent hospitalizations in their communities. We should not treat restrictions as a light switch, where we go from strict capacity limits to nothing, Fauci warns Jake Tapper in the next clip. But Texas hasn’t done that either. They had a 75% capacity for many companies before Greg Abbott’s new order authorizing full reopening. It was a gradual adjustment.

However. Think about how difficult it will be to reach a benchmark of 10,000 cases a day, or “considerably less,” ideally, in Fauci’s words. The last time we had up to 10,000 confirmed cases in a single day in the United States was on March 22, 2020, 348 days ago. Aside from a handful of days last May and June, it’s also been almost a full year since we’ve seen less than * 20,000 * cases a day. And remember, these case counts were being recorded at a time when American testing capacity was still poor, much less extensive than it is now. In fact, we generated many more than 10,000 infections a day last March; the low count of cases is due to the fact that we were still in a primitive phase of detecting them.

Which means we may not have seen a single day with less than 10,000 infections for a full year, possibly since February 2020. So ask: really, the number of cases will drop from 10,000 per day even after everyone do you want a vaccine? Something like 15% of Americans insist they won’t get shot in any case. That’s 45 million people. Even allowing the fact that many are immunized in the old and some are children who will probably not be very contagious, we are still talking about a group of millions who will remain vulnerable to the virus. Couldn’t they generate 10,000 infections a day between them? Especially during a more contagious winter season?

A benchmark of 10K per day therefore seems like a terribly high bar to return to normal. Even if we soften that 15 percent of withholdings and convince almost everyone to get vaccinated, it will be many months before the entire population has access to the shot. And assuming we can all end up in September, we’ll probably have to turn around and get boosters again, as the virus threatens a resurgence in colder weather.

That is, pandemic restrictions basically forever. There may not be strict restrictions, but still. Recommended masks next winter, restaurants with a capacity of 75 or 50 percent?

Perhaps Americans are getting used to the idea:

The irony is that the same survey has the number of people who believe the pandemic improves a little or a lot, by 60%, the highest it has ever been. Americans are increasingly optimistic! And … also more resigned than their lives will be interrupted next year.

What really worries Fauci and his Biden teammates are the new variants. It is not certain that we will end a fourth wave of the virus driven by more contagious strains, but it is true that it is possible:

Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said Thursday that the most transmissible variant B.1.1.7 was showing between 20% and 30% of viruses obtained in surveillance controls in states such as Florida, California and Georgia. Those figures (just 1% -2% four weeks ago) are likely to double in ten days, he said.

When this variant appeared in 50% of surveillance controls in some areas of Europe and the Middle East, “we saw a significant increase in (general) cases.” – and the same could happen in the US, he said.

“Everything the governors are doing right now to relax all the public health recommendations we’ve made will only be a major invitation for this virus to spread faster and farther,” Osterholm told CNN’s “New Day.” .

Watch here for the first few minutes as Fauci sets out his possible impossible referent. For what it’s worth, Biden doesn’t seem hurt by the extreme caution advised by his advisers. According to a new AP poll, Sleepy Joe has 70% approval in the treatment of the pandemic, including 44% among Republicans. It’s probably a reaction to the rising pace of vaccines, but Biden’s sustained emphasis on masks and not reopening too soon isn’t a problem for him right now. We’ll see how things look in two months if and when tens of millions more people have been immunized and the White House continues to urge governors not to open too soon.

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