WASHINGTON (CNN) – An influential COVID-19 model has predicted the total number of deaths in the United States due to the virus on August 1, a number that researchers say will be affected by the number of Americans who they continue to wear masks as vaccinations continue.
A model from the Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington predicts that approximately 618,523 people will have died from coronavirus in the United States on August 1. If 95% of the American population wore masks, the projection would be reduced to 604,413 deaths.
In the worst case, in which fully vaccinated people return to pre-pandemic levels of mobility, the prediction grows to 697,573, according to the IHME forecast. Projection factors in the speed of distribution of vaccines, as well as the spread of more transmissible variants.
All 50 states are on track to open vaccines to Americans 16 and older starting April 19th. While increasing inoculations is an important step in defeating the virus, health experts warn that the country is in a race against variants, such as B.1.1.7. first identified in the UK, which may cause another increase in cases.
The United States reported at least 80,157 new cases on Friday, the third day in a row and the fourth day of the last week, with at least 75,000 or more cases, according to Johns Hopkins University. In all, more than 561,000 people have died so far from the coronavirus, according to the account.
Vaccines are an effective tool against the spread of viruses, but they are not perfect and should be supplemented with precautions such as wearing masks and avoiding meetings indoors, Dr. Anthony Fauci said.
“I don’t think even if I’m vaccinated, I would go to a place full of people and where there are no masks,” the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases told Business Insider.
Pfizer wants to expand vaccines to Americans up to 12 years old
So far, the youngest Americans eligible for the vaccine are 16.
But on Friday, Acting Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Janet Woodcock said the agency would evaluate “as soon as possible” Pfizer’s request to extend the emergency use permit of the drug manufacturer COVID-19 vaccine to include people aged 12 to 15 years.
“While the FDA cannot predict how long it will take our evaluation of the data and information, we will review the application as quickly as possible through our comprehensive, science-based approach.” Woodcock said on Twitter.
Dr. Syra Madad, director of the system-wide special pathogens program at New York City Health + Hospitals, told CNN on Saturday that making the vaccine available to 12- to 15-year-old age groups excite as a father.
“We should all have high hopes,” said Madad, a member of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School. “This is very welcome news. We know that children are vulnerable to infection and hospitalizations … They certainly increase in cases.”
The pharmaceutical company said it will seek similar rulings from other authorities around the world in the coming days.
“These applications are based on data from the Phase 3 fundamental trial in adolescents aged 12 to 15 years with or without prior evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, which demonstrated 100% efficacy and a response solid antibody after vaccination with the COVID-19 Vaccine, “Pfizer said in a statement.
COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have increased, says the CDC director
Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are on the rise, especially for younger people, while deaths are declining, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Friday.
He said there are increases in cases and emergency room visits in younger adults, many of whom have not been vaccinated.
People aged 18 to 25, 26 to 54 and 55 to 64 have an increasing number of visits to the emergency services, he said, while people aged 65 and over have declining visits, “probably demonstrating the significant impact of vaccination in protection against diseases requiring hospitalization “. “
Walensky said that while these are national statistics, the trends are widening in some areas of the country.
With the spread of the more transmissible variant B.1.1.7, as well as the lower proportion of younger people vaccinated, the increase feared by experts could greatly affect young Americans.
“We need to think of variant B.1.1.7 as an almost new virus,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the Baylor College of Medicine’s National School of Tropical Medicine earlier this week. “It acts differently from anything we’ve seen before, in terms of transmissibility, in terms of affecting young people, so we have to take it very seriously.”
Concerns of adverse reactions
In Colorado, following reports of adverse reactions, three accelerated vaccination sites will stop offering the Johnson & Johnson vaccine on Saturday.
The venues are Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Broadmoor World Arena in Colorado Springs and Colorado State Fairgrounds in Pueblo, according to a Centura Health press release.
The health network reiterated CDC guidelines that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is safe and effective, but said the decision was made because of the national vaccine shortage and adverse reactions to a vaccine event. vaccination at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park earlier this week.
The Dick’s Sporting Goods Park vaccination site was due to close early Wednesday after at least 11 of the more than 1,700 people who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine experienced adverse reactions.
However, officials in Wake County, North Carolina, plan to resume administration of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine as early as Monday, after a break on Thursday when 18 people at the PNC Arena experienced “mild reactions to serious “immediately after vaccinations.
The decision comes “after a thorough internal review that supports the findings of CDC and the NC Department of Health and Human Services. The findings were aligned with those of other similar events across the country, which did not they indicate problems of concern, ”he said. in a statement.
The CDC, in a statement to CNN, said it is aware of the various incidents related to J&J vaccines reported in Iowa, Colorado, Georgia and North Carolina.
At this time, the CDC and the FDA “do not recommend health departments to stop administering any amount of COVID-19 vaccine,” the statement said. “CDC has conducted batch vaccine analysis and found no cause for concern.”
Madad told CNN on Saturday that the adverse reactions are “consistent with the side effects we normally see after vaccination.”
“Right now, the benefits outweigh the risks, but I hope more information is available to the general public,” he said.
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