Joe Douglas can take the title of this Jets season to NBA superstar LeBron James. This is Douglas’ decision.
The 44-year-old general manager won’t make his announcement on a special prime-time TV show, but he’ll have to figure out who his quarterback will be for 2021, and possibly beyond, over the next few weeks. Will Douglas stay with Sam Darnold for a fourth season, hoping a new coaching staff and a better support cast will help him improve? Will he draft a No. 2 quarterback overall and change Darnold? The decision has so many layers and can be seen in many ways that it sets the most fascinating call for an executive and a franchise in the recent history of New York sport.
“It’s the most important decision of his career,” said former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky. “It’s probably the Jets’ most important decision in 40 years, I don’t know. It’s huge. “
You’re wrong and the Jets will be looking for a new GM in a few years. Get it right and Douglas will be on his way to bringing the Jets back from the desert they’ve been in for the past decade.
The decision has several layers to examine. For our purposes, we set aside the possibility of negotiating with Texan star Deshaun Watson, which at the moment still seems unlikely. Let’s focus on Darnold versus college quarterbacks, led by BYU’s Zach Wilson.
Darnold’s debate
The Jets ranked Darnold No. 3 overall in 2018 in hopes of finding their franchised quarterback. Instead, he has been a confused player. There are moments of brilliance that are interspersed with more plays that make your head scratch. Injuries and illnesses have cost him 10 games and prevented him from playing a full season.
The debate that is now spreading on talk radio and on Jets Twitter about Darnold is also taking place inside the organization. There are some who see untapped potential that has been held back by a poor cast surrounding it. Others are ready to move on.
It is impossible to argue Darnold by using statistics. Since 2018, there have been 42 quarterbacks that have thrown at least 500 passes. Darnold’s QB rating of 78.6 is 41st out of 42. Only Josh Rosen’s 63.5 is lower. Darnold has been intercepted 39 times, the fifth pick in three years.
On the other side of the debate, people point out that Darnold will not turn 24 until June and has not been given much help in his career. Robert Saleh would be his third coach in four years. Mike LaFleur would be his third offensive coordinator. The franchise has been unstable since Darnold arrived. The GM who drafted it, Mike Maccagnan, was fired after the first season of Darnold.
Then there is the talent around him, or the lack of it. Darnold played with a constantly changing cast of players. That’s how many different starters he’s played in each offensive position: 15 wide receivers, nine tight ends, seven running backs, seven left guards, five right guards, five right attacks, four centers and four left attacks. Of those 56 players, none have made a Pro Bowl as a Jet.
Darnold’s training is also in question. Former coach Adam Gase’s offense eventually ended up dead in the NFL in total gardens in each of the past two years. Gase, who was hired to get the best out of Darnold, admitted he failed the quarterback. Darnold has had a score of 100 passes or more in seven games in his career. Four of these reached their rookie season, three in 2019 and towards last year as they seemed to be returning.
This leads to the question of what extent Darnold can have in LaFleur’s offense and whether Douglas can improve the offense through free agency and the project this year, which would give hope to the pro-Darnold people.
“I think he sometimes got into difficult situations to develop,” said Matt Bowen, who played seven seasons in the NFL and is now an ESPN analyst. “When you have several head coaches, several players, when you have a list with talent gaps around you, sometimes it’s hard to evaluate. We need to get back to the shots. I think Sam Darnold has high level shots in his position. The Jets’ question is, will these shots fit LaFleur’s offense? What I think is one of the best crimes today in the NFL. “
Saleh and LaFleur bring Kyle Shanahan’s offense from San Francisco. It is an offense considered quarterback friendly due to the great emphasis on movement, play and action. Darnold has always been well on the move and LaFleur’s offense could maximize it. There are many coaches and executives around the NFL who privately agree with Bowen and still see the potential of the superstar at Darnold and believe that, on the right offense, he can realize his potential.
Another factor in Darnold’s decision, however, is finances. Darnold has one year left on his rookie contract for $ 4.6 million. There is also a fifth-year option for 2022, which is $ 18.9 million. The Jets are unlikely to have that option. If they stay with Darnold, that means they should move on after this year or commit to him with an extension. However, if they drafted a quarterback, they would start again with a quarterback in their rookie deal and with at least five years of team control.
Many in the league believe the Jets could get a second-round pick for Darnold, in addition to a mid-round pick this year or next.
“If you sit here and tell me we’re going to grab a quarterback because we think he’s going to be as good as Sam Darnold, if not better, in the next three years and he resets our financial schedule, I can’t sit here and say,‘ No, it’s stupid, “especially with financial flexibility,” Orlovsky said. “But I know it too: if you take a quarterback and he just gets well and Sam Darnold goes somewhere else and plays well, woo, good luck.”
The university option
That would have been easy if the 2020 Jets hadn’t won two games in December. We would talk about Trevor Lawrence, the boy not to be missed, who ranks No. 1 overall. In contrast, the image of the quarterback at number 2 is more cloudy.
There is no quarterback no. 2 in this draft. BYU’s Zach Wilson has gained more momentum since the season ended, but he also played a cupcake calendar. Justin Fields, in the state of Ohio, could have the most impressive features. Trey Lance, a North Dakota state, is a bit mysterious after just one game last season and a total of 17 in college. Alabama’s Mac Jones won many games with the Crimson Tide, but had an All-Star team around him.
The Jets draft board will pile up with these four quarterbacks … and another.
“I would put Sam Darnold on the draft board,” Bowen said. “Would you say where we classify him based on his university and his professional tape? If you rate him more than Wilson and Fields, you’ll stay with him. It’s as simple as that. If you don’t, move it. ”
The Jets also need to figure out what else they can do with pick # 2 if they keep Darnold. They could trade him for a selection pack to a team that has fallen in love with one of the quarterbacks. They could grab the best non-quarterback in the draft to help Darnold. It could be a wide receiver like LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase or Alabama’s DeVonta Smith, or it could be Oregon’s offensive attack Penei Sewell combined with the first-round pick of the year. past, Mekhi Becton.
“I’ve never been a big fan of Darnold. It is a billing machine. That’s what it is, ”said Dan Shonka, a longtime NFL explorer who is now the general manager of OurLads exploration services.“ But that said, I think if I were Joe Douglas, I would write Penei Sewell “At that point of attack. Now you have a couple of notebook devices as long as Becton holds up.”
Shonka is not as tall as Wilson as others. Wilson has fired up preliminary media advice over the past two months. Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms even ranked him over Lawrence last week. Shonka has reservations about the BYU quarterback, who surpassed the weak schedule in 2020. He has ranked him as the No. 5 quarterback behind Lawrence, Jones, Fields and Lance. Shonka also questions Wilson’s durability because of his lightweight 6-foot 3-foot and 210-pound frame and the fact that he has already had shoulder surgery.
“You’re feeling the herd mentality with Zach Wilson,” Shonka said. “I want to tell you that Zach Wilson may not be able to hold on to the National Football League. He is a narrow-shouldered boy. He is a very precise, intelligent man, with good expectations and all that. But he’s not a very big boy. “
Orlovsky is a bigger fan of Wilson, who said he has shots he believes will be transferred to the NFL.
“Wilson plays a FOMO style of football: fear of getting lost,” Orlovsky said. “This year he made me say ‘Holy Fudge’ to any quarterback on tape. There are a lot of things he likes about his game. He has fast hands. He reminds me [former MLB star] Omar Vizquel. He’s crazy fast with his hands. “
Fields’ trajectory has been the opposite of Wilson’s. His popularity peaked in the semifinals of the college playoffs with his performance against Clemson. If the draft had been the next day, it would have been choice number 2. But his game has been chosen ever since.
“I think Fields has incredible talent. It’s deliberate, “Orlovsky said. “You have to figure out if he’s going to develop from that because being deliberate in the NFL isn’t good right now. For a guy who’s incredibly athletic, he doesn’t play very fast. Do you trust he will?”
Bowen believes part of the deliberate nature of the Fields game is due to the Ohio State offense that featured deep, more developed routes. He argues that Fields often waited for the receiver instead of processing him slowly.
Bowen said Fields has skills that cannot be taught.
“The shots are important,” Bowen said. “They have to import because they can’t be created”.
Lance and Jones also have supporters, but seem less likely to be candidates for the Jets at No. 2.
The final decision
Douglas has to make his call now in one of the toughest seasons to assess prospects. You won’t be able to do private workouts or even have dinner with college players. He will attend Pro Days, starting with Lance’s on Friday, and debate with scouts and coaches on their way to the call that will define the Jets ’near and possibly long-term future.
Douglas has been working for 21 months. The next month more and before the first round on April 29 could be what defines his legacy with the Jets.
“I always think CEOs put a stamp on their football team,” Bowen said. “Joe Douglas hasn’t done it yet. So what will it be? I think that’s it. That is what the decision will mean. ”