SALT LAKE CITY: For doctors like Dr. Mark Briesacher, COVID-19 trends over the past two months have been well received.
The seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases in Utah has dropped 87% since its last peak on Jan. 9, according to the Utah Department of Health. The current average is now 419 new cases a day, which is the lowest it has been in more than six months.
As cases have decreased, the pressure the disease has forced on hospitals has also slowly eased. As of Friday, there were 130 people hospitalized for COVID-19, which is the lowest hospitalization for COVID-19 since mid-September.
The most serious cases have also been reduced: 74% of the ICUs in the state reference center, which is a mark below the warning threshold, were filled. Statewide ICUs were also full at 69%, which is also below the threshold, according to data from the state health department.
The data also show that referral ICUs and statewide ICUs reached 10% of ICU capacity as a result of COVID-19 this week also for the first time since mid-September. Both had reached 44% and 45% on January 15th.
In addition, the COVID-19 vaccine was opened to all Utahns aged 16 and over, which requires drastically changing the number of Utahns vaccinated in the coming weeks.
“We’re excited about the trends we see, especially because that means a lot to patients and families,” said Briesacher, chief medical officer at Intermountain Healthcare. “Fewer people in the hospital, fewer people who are in critical condition. That’s really good to see.”
While there is good news about COVID-19 trends, Briesacher said there is still an associated risk of celebrating the end of the pandemic too quickly. That’s why he and other public health experts are cautious and optimistic about the school’s spring break and, as the statewide mask mandate technically ends on April 10th.
To begin with, more people need to be vaccinated and it is impossible to vaccinate at least 70% of the estimated adult population in a week. Briesacher also noted that while cases have dropped significantly in recent weeks, they are still relatively high, with between 400 and 500 new cases reported each day of the week.
I have a lot of empathy for the fact that this disease continues to create this burden for our communities, for people, and for families. We need to be alert and keep moving forward in the right way until we can reduce this thing.
–Dr. Mark Briesacher, chief executive officer of Intermountain Healthcare
Dr. Angela Dunn, a state epidemiologist, has also noted in recent weeks that the number of new cases was stagnating.
“This still represents a lot of new cases,” Briesacher said during a question and answer session Friday. “We still have a transmission rate in this range of 7% to 8%, so we need to be vigilant when it comes to infection control, especially in healthcare facilities.”
He compared the pandemic to a marathon: it’s great to celebrate victories along the way, but the race isn’t over. The point is that the ultimate goal is not for the number of COVID-19 infections to return to the levels seen six months ago, but to put an end to as many cases, serious cases, and deaths as possible.
“I think it’s good for a community, especially our communities, to feel good about how we’ve responded,” he said. “Let’s stay vigilant. Let’s not lose our advantage; let’s not forget how serious it is. There are still Utahns dying of COVID-19 and, when compared to what we’ve experienced, it can be falsely concluded that, boy, things are D ‘ agreement, because they are much better.
“But if you focus on the absolute number … it’s people and families who are affected so hard,” he continued. “I have a lot of empathy for the fact that this disease continues to create such a huge burden on our communities, for people and for families. We need to be alert to them and keep moving forward in the right way until we can really compromise this thing down. “.
There are some possible hurdles in between now and reaching the herd immunity against COVID-19 that Briesacher addressed on Friday.
One is that spring break at many schools in Utah also began this weekend or is on the horizon. Briesacher recommended that families planning to travel during the break focus on activities that might have a more “outside” orientation, such as camping in small groups.
“We all saw the photos of Florida beaches and I know we won’t be like that,” he said. “But there’s the risk that there was during the Thanksgiving holidays. You saw the great response from the community to come together and really mitigate the possible outcomes that could have come from this Thanksgiving holiday.” .
The current statewide term is also scheduled to expire on April 10 after Governor Spencer Cox signed a bill passed in the legislature this week to set that date. Needless to say, it will remain in place for schools and also for companies that decide to need masks.
Companies like Harmons, Smith’s and Target have said they will keep their requirements beyond that date. Intermountain Healthcare also announced that it requires employees and patients to wear masks at their facilities even after April 10th.
Briesacher said he sees April 10 as the start of the “personal health mandate,” where individuals can make decisions to continue wearing masks and distance themselves socially in public places whenever possible to avoid the possibility of a another increase in cases.
He added that Intermountain and other public health experts will continue to monitor the situation in the event of another increase in cases and as the future of COVID-19 materializes beyond the pandemic.