The latest developments
There are two major updates to the winter storm forecast starting Sunday morning:
1.) Rainfall has reached southern New Jersey more slowly than expected.
2.) Temperatures are even warmer than expected in the southern half of the state, with a rainier start for most.
After analyzing the current situation and the latest model guidelines, I think these developments will affect the chronology of the storms, but not the final snow totals. My final snow accumulation map is exactly the same like the one I posted on Saturday afternoon, except for the addition of the turquoise outline to more specifically denote the types of precipitation.
Chronology
Rainfall will spread from south to north in the early hours of Sunday morning, between approximately 5 a.m. to 9 p.m. For the southern half of the state, roughly south of Mercer and Monmouth counties, it’s likely to start raining or a fluid mix. For northern New Jersey, I hope there is snow all the time.
The weight of the storm recedes slightly. Things will really go downhill starting around 9 or 10 in the morning This is when localized heavy snowflakes will reduce visibility and cause faster accumulations. (Snowfall rates could reach an inch or two per hour). Even coastal areas could turn into moderate, heavy snow in the early afternoon. The heaviest things should go away around 2 p.m.
As the storm system recedes, we will see that light to moderate snow ends from west to east between approx. 2 and 5 p.m.
Totals
Same map as last time. While the mixing potential is a good case for leaning more towards the lower end of my forecast ranges than towards the top.
The sweet spot of the storm, roughly along the Turnpike Corridor through the southern and central interior of New Jersey, should be seen 4 to 6 inches more of snow. The “plus” is important, although I don’t think we have widespread snowfall of 8 or 10 inches, excessive performance is possible depending on the structure of the bands. (The NAM model was really bullish on that possibility even Sunday morning, so we don’t rule out the possibility of a major snow event yet).
To the north, you will probably fall from the “pouring snow” bands. However, 2 to 4 inches shovel is enough. And it will be especially shocking with more than a foot of snow still on the ground from last Monday’s snow bomb.
Along the south coast, it maintains a 0 to 2 snow forecast in inches. I think this is where there is the greatest uncertainty in this forecast. The models have been painting a pretty snowy scene along the Jersey shore until Sunday afternoon. So there is a possibility of more than 2 inches here. On the other hand, temperatures are quite warm (43 degrees in Atlantic City and Cape May, according to this writing). So I think it’s reasonable to keep both cap i some on the table.
Impacts
No matter what falls from the sky, it will become quite nasty and neglected for half the day. This will go a little beyond the “conversational snow”. The trip will be very difficult during the peak of the storm, from mid-morning until early afternoon.
Even for those who go out The great game, the roads may be in poor condition Sunday evening. Hopefully, the crews will largely get rid of the snow at rush hour on Monday morning. I could see some schools and companies delaying their opening on Monday (or becoming virtual) while plowing operations continued.
Meanwhile, wind is not expected to be a problem during the storm. You may find some gusts of more than 20 mph. In this way, it will be kept under the risk of electrical outages and almost a snowstorm.
And because of the gentle wind, storms and coastal flooding won’t be a problem either. With only a few inches of water, not a single tide along the Jersey Shore approaches the flooding phase.
The expanded forecast
Arctic air returns to Garden State Sunday night, accompanied by a strong northwest wind. During the night, low temperatures will sink in teens, with chills in the only digits. Brrr
A number of storm systems will provide us with additional winter weather captures this week. Although, in all honesty, we still don’t have good control over rainfall types and potential accumulations. The first push would be on Tuesday and it could be mostly rain. Another complex storm from Thursday through Friday could be more shocking, with a build-up of solid snow on the table.
We will address them later. One storm at a time, please.
Coverage plan
I’m on your radio Sunday, through the Townsquare New Jersey weather network, until our nor’easter starts running. I will have regular updates on the web, the app and social media throughout the day.
Our news team is also ready to report any issues related to power outages, traffic and traffic, closures and cancellations, and more.
Be smart, stay safe and stay warm. And enjoy the snow!
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media, New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter to get the latest weather forecasts and updates in real time.