Gavin Newsom’s victory in the referendum asking whether he should leave or remain in the California governorship is considered by experts as an important step for Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections, in which 34 seats of the Senate and all those of Congress will be in game. In addition, they believe that it positively influences the agenda of this political party and even the re-election campaign of Joe Biden (If that happens).
“This election is the start of the 2022 election campaign (the midterm elections) and 2024 (the possible re-election of Biden),” said Raúl Hinojosa, an associate professor at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA). in an interview with Univision News before the preliminary results were known. “A Newsom victory would be a victory for Biden and Democrats in general for the upcoming elections, which will be a referendum against Trumpism,” the academic added.
Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of Path Brown Institute at California State University in Los Angeles, says these Democratic leaders were the “icing on the cake” in a successful political campaign. “If Newsom wins it was because of the unification of his party that was behind him,” the expert told this medium. “He did the basic political work.”
According to Sonenshein, 1 defeat would have represented “A catastrophe in democratic morality” and a challenge in the race to win as many seats in Congress as possible next year. “Biden is using this election because it is very difficult for presidents for their party to win in the midterm elections. If it manages to motivate California, it can do so nationally,” he noted.
Indeed, historically the president’s party loses seats in the by-elections.
Miguel Tinker Salas, a history professor at Pomona College in California, agrees that the possible victory for the governor of California is symbolic and very important “Because it happens in the context of the election of Joe Biden, the military exit from Afghanistan and the handling of the pandemic.”
“This election has a nationwide impact. Not only on Newsom’s policy, but it could punish those who have not met social demands,” Tinker Salas told Univision News.
For Newsom supporters, this democratic exercise was a waste of time which left them with no choice but to take it as an opportunity to prove that Trumpism has no strength in California. But those who demand this removal considered it the right time for give the Democrats a knock on the door who have ruled the state since 2011 and who, in his opinion, have generated an economic, housing, health, education and security crisis.
The main complaint was the management of the pandemic (although California has one of the highest vaccination rates and led the closure of businesses, which experts considered appropriate to minimize infections, given the lack of leadership in the White House ) and the blows to the economy by the restrictions.
“We have an increase in crime, an increase in homelessness, an outrageous increase in the cost of living, a decline in public school standards,” Larry Elder said at the close of his campaign on Monday. “We have five seasons of the year in California: the fifth is fire. And that’s because of the mismanagement of our forests,” the aspirant added.
Tinker Salar agrees that Newsom’s opponents highlighted the “contradictions” in California, considered the fifth largest economy on the planet, mostly because of the high cost of living. For this professor, the imminent permanence of the Democrat in power must also be an opportunity to “rectify” policies that have not done enough to close. “A very open social gap.”
The Latin vote in this contest
Biden and Newsom led a crowded political rally in Long Beach on Monday, which contrasted with a modest event hosted by Elder. Some believe he had to have Trump and other Republican figures by his side to try to equalize the fight. But it was not so.
President Biden warned that actions were being taken to counter the pandemic, safeguard reproductive rights and combat climate change. He referred to Elder as “Donald Trump’s Clone” and he asked the people, “Can you imagine him being the governor of this state?” In unison, those present replied, “Noooo!”.
63.4% of the California electorate voted for Biden in the last presidential vote, nearly double what Trump got, a victory that put 55 electoral votes in his pocket.
“The eyes of the nation are set on California,” Biden warned Monday, stressing that the revocation vote “will reverberate across the country and … around the world.”
Democrats joined ranks because Newson is the second California governor of this institute whose removal is put to a vote on a special day that cost several million dollars. At first, Gray Davis, it went wrong for him: he lost in 2003 and was replaced by the Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, who ruled for two terms until 2011. Only four governors have passed this test of fire in country history.
Experts believe that this election day has also served to measure another negative legacy of Trump: falsely claiming that there was fraud when the vote did not favor them. The former Republican president, who still does not acknowledge his defeat last November, said without providing evidence that the referendum was fixed. “In any case, nothing matters because the California election is totally manipulated,” he said in a statement.
At the close of the campaign, Elder asked his supporters to use an online form to report alleged fraud. The site stated (a day before the votes were counted) that had “detected fraud” in the “results” of the removal election.
“Statistical analyzes used to detect fraud in elections held in third world countries (such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran) have detected fraud in California, which has resulted in Governor Gavin Newsom being reinstated as governor, “read the portal.
Later, the website changed its statement to the following: “Electoral integrity should be a universally accepted American ideal. Unfortunately, there are cases where that integrity is questioned. If you have experienced any irregularity, interference or intimidation while voting, please contact us by filling out the short form below “.
Asked about the question, Professor Raúl Hinojosa considers it a reaction now typical of Republican candidates. “We see the argument that no election that Republicans lose is legitimate.” This professor hopes that these claims will be diluted in other votes.
“What started as a Republican attempt to get a Democrat out has become a movement that is helping Democrats and ridiculing Republican stances,” he said.
Polls published in recent weeks show different preferences from Hispanics about keeping or dismissing Newsom. A CBS News poll in August found they had a 50% -50% split. But other analyzes by the Public Policy Institute of California and the University of California at Berkeley conclude that about 66% opposed the revocation.
Sonenshein, director of the Path Brown Institute, doubts that the Hispanic vote in this fight will define the path to immigration reform that legalizes 10.5 million undocumented people, though he believes it is taken into account “because Latinos are very important for the Democratic party. “
