SEOUL, South Korea (AP): new US president, the same old North Korean game book. Almost.
Two months after President Joe Biden took office, North Korea is once again resorting to arms tests start external concessions. But the tests so far have been relatively small compared to previous releases. This indicates that Washington has a window of engagement before North Korea pursues greater provocations.
This week, North Korean residents reported that the country launched four short-range missiles into the sea in its first missile launches in about a year. The launches, two on Sunday and two on Thursday, came after the North said it had rejected offers from dialogues from the Biden administration, citing what it called U.S. hostility.
Let’s look at North Korea’s recent missile launches and their motives.
WHAT IS DIFFERENT ABOUT NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGY THIS TIME?
North Korea has a long history of conducting major weapons tests at a time when new governments are taking power in the United States and South Korea.
In February 2017, less than a month after Donald Trump took over the presidency of the United States, North Korea tested a mid-range missile that according to observers showed a breakthrough in arms mobility. Later in 2017, four days after the inauguration of the current president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, North Korea launched what it called a newly developed mid-range missile with nuclear capability.
In 2009, North Korea conducted a long-range rocket launch and a nuclear test during the first four months of the Obama administration’s first term.
This week’s gun tests appear to largely follow this playbook, but experts believe the country slowed down a more serious provocation because the Biden administration is still evaluating its North Korean policy.
The four missiles launched this week were short-range and posed no direct threat to the continental United States. According to South Korea’s assessment, the first two weapons launched on Sunday were believed to be cruise missiles. But Japan said the two fired on Thursday were ballistic missiles, more provocative weapons that North Korea is banned from testing by UN Security Council resolutions.
“The basic pattern is not very different. But while North Korea has focused in the past on showing its maximum capacity when a new government came to the United States, I think the North is trying to control the level of (its provocation), “said Du Hyeogn Cha, Seoul analyst Asan Institute for Political Studies.
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WHAT DOES NORTH KOREA WANT?
What he has always wanted: “The United States should lift sanctions while letting them maintain their nuclear capability,” said Moon Seong Mook, an analyst at Korea’s Seoul-based National Strategy Research Institute.
Because the Biden administration is unlikely to do so soon, some experts say North Korea may make bigger provocations, such as a long-range missile test or a nuclear detonation.
For now, it is increasing its rhetoric along with short-range missile launches.
In January, about ten days before Biden took office, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced that he would expand his nuclear arsenal and strengthen the country’s fighting capacity to deal with hostile US policy and military threats. . He also pressured South Korea to suspend regular military exercises with the United States if it wants to have better ties.
As the U.S. and South Korean military continued their spring exercises this month, Kim’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong warned the U.S. to “refrain from stinking” if they want to “sleep in peace. “for the next four years.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said Washington arrived in Pyongyang as of mid-February, but Pyongyang has not responded. Along with the opening, however, Blinken continued to break North Korea’s record for human rights and nuclear ambitions when he visited Seoul last week. North Korea’s first deputy foreign minister, Choe Son Hui, said her country will continue to ignore these US offers because of what she called American hostility.
Recent releases appear to be an example of North Korea “putting into action Kim Yo Jong’s threats as he said the United States cannot sleep in peace if it does not accept its demands,” Moon Seong Mook said.
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WHAT’S NEXT?
Experts say the Biden administration is very unlikely to back down and make concessions in the face of North Korea’s short-range missile launches. Biden, who has called Kim a “thug,” is also unlikely to sit down in individual talks with Kim unless he gets the compromise that North Korea will denuclearize and officials confirm the country is sincere.
Amid the confrontation, North Korea could end up launching larger arms tests, especially if it is not satisfied with the review of North Korea’s Biden administration policy that is expected to be released soon, they say. the experts.
“Biden probably won’t do a Trump-style ‘reality show’ summit with Kim. Afterwards, Kim’s agony for the next four years will be deepened and his nuclear bets can’t help but continue,” Nam Sung said. -wook, professor at the University of South Korea.
North Korea could resort to long-range missiles and even nuclear testing, which Kim Jong Un suspended when it began diplomatic relations with Washington. Although Kim Jong Un has claimed to have achieved the ability to attack the U.S. homeland with nuclear missiles, outside experts said the North does not dominate everything it would need to do so.
Such a major provocation would certainly provoke the United States and its allies to seek additional UN sanctions against North Korea.
But tougher sanctions can be difficult because China, the North’s main diplomatic ally and economic lifesaver, exercises veto power over the UN Security Council. Given current tensions with Washington, China may not readily accept more sanctions, even if North Korea participates in long-range missile or nuclear tests, analyst Cha said.