For most of his tennis career, winning even a Grand Slam tournament meant asserting his career.
From 1990 to 98, 16 different players won a major, six for the first and only time. If there was a general narrative, it would probably have to do with reaching No. 1 in the ATP rankings.
A lone Slam victory led to Thomas Muster’s rise to No. 1 in early 1996, as did Carlos Moya in 1999. Yevgeny Kafelnikov and Patrick Rafter also reached the top in 1999, as did Lleyton Hewitt, Gustavo Kuerten and Marat Safin. in the following years. In late 2003, it was Andy Roddick’s turn to win a Slam (US Open) and reach No. 1.
Since 2004, however, only four men have been ranked No. 1: Roger Federer (310 weeks), Novak Djokovic (308), Rafael Nadal (209) and Andy Murray (41). The top three on this list have also won 57 of the last 69 slams and the only narrative that has mattered over the last decade has been: who will end up with more slam titles? Nadal tied Federer at 20 with his victory at the French Open in late 2020 and Djokovic at 17 has long saved both of them.
This highlights all the losses, especially with the three in the advanced stages of their respective careers (Federer is 39, Nadal 34, Djokovic 33). When Djokovic was kicked out of the U.S. Open last fall for accidentally hitting a linebacker with a ball, it was a great missed opportunity to reach a Christmas title and two from Federer; Nadal hooked up another one when he swept Djokovic to Paris.
Nadal lost his own chance on Wednesday in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open when he only won his second two-set lead in a Slam and lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas by 3-6, 2-6, 7- 6, 6-4 and 7-5.
It was a massive moment for 22-year-old Tsitsipas, who has now overcome two disadvantages in consecutive Slams and reached his third major semifinal, the second in a row. It was only his second win against one of the top 10 players in a Slam. But, given the larger tennis narrative, we also have to ask ourselves what this does in the race for the Slams of the race.
Hard track titles are bonus points for Christmas
Nadal is the best clay court player of all time; of this, there is no doubt. And he’s a great one of all time Generally because his skill is not limited to clay: he has won five slams and two Wimbledons.
His 13 titles at the French Open, however, are obviously the key to his position in the major title race; it has only won two slams outside of Paris in the last seven years (in 2017 and 2019 it opens in the United States). If he finishes at the top, it will be because of Roland Garros and, as he showed last autumn, his dominance in Paris is far from over. He has won four consecutive French Open and left no set on the way to last year’s championship.
Viously, obviously, a title in Melbourne would have benefited Christmas a lot, and offering a two-set advantage is nothing more than expensive. But this is not his event.
The Australian Open means much more to Djokovic’s case than to Christmas’s
Perhaps the most important plot twist in Djokovic’s research happened when he became the best gardener in the world; despite the generic assumptions we can make about a player who defends so well and has a fantastic attacking game, but not an elite one, who has to be more suited to hard or clay courts than turf, has won four of the last six Wimbledons, fixing opponents deeply, serving better and better and forcing plenty of mistakes. He will be the favorite in London when the tournament resumes this summer.
Still, Melbourne is to Djokovic what Paris is to Christmas. He has won eight Australian Open titles, including seven of the last 10. If we set the eventual over / under of the Slam titles at 22 or 23, it means he needs five or six more. Since almost half of its 17 titles have come to Australia, it is estimated that at least two future titles, perhaps three, will have to come from here as well.
Djokovic reached the semis with four quarter-final victories over Alexander Zverev, but his form has not been the maximum in those fortnight. He fell a set against Frances Tiafoe in the second round, and then suffered a mysterious injury to Taylor Fritz in the third round. He survived that match in five sets before beating Milos Raonic and Zverev each in four, but while these results would be incredible for almost any living player, it is clear that Djokovic is not in full force.
Despite the injury, William Hill’s Caesars lists Djokovic’s odds of betting at -1450 (equivalent to a 94% chance of winning) against Cinderella’s Aslan Karatsev standings and history in the semifinals. But even if we assume he is advancing, even though we know the odds have not been applied in any way to Karatsev’s race so far, he will still have to face Tsitsipas or Daniil Medvedev in the finals.
Medvedev is a three-time Hard Slam semifinalist and nearly defeated Nadal in the 2019 U.S. Open finals; Elo Tennis Abstract’s ratings classify him as the world’s No. 2 hard court player. Even if an injured Djokovic is better than almost everyone on this surface, is he still better than Medvedev?
This is a huge moment for the next generation of tennis
If “Who will end up with more slams?” has been the most important question in men’s tennis for the past decade, and “When will the younger generation surpass the big three?” is the second largest. We have been asking for this for a long time.
The Raonic-Kei Nishikori-Grigor Dimitrov generation was slowed by injuries and missed opportunities, and there is an interesting dichotomy in the current ATP top 12: there are four players aged 33 or over, six 25-year-olds or less and only two of them (Dominic Thiem and Diego Schwartzman).
The group aged 25 and under has shown enormous potential; we are just waiting for a breakthrough. The top three in this group – Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev – have combined to defeat Djokovic seven times, Federer six times and Nadal five times, but before Tsitsipas’ quarter-final victory over Nadal, they had only been 1-7 against the Big Three in Slams. They are now 2-7.
We often exaggerate the effects of the intangibles and the immeasurable on sports (most important things are measurable), but it’s obvious how much role trust and pure belief can play in an individual sport like tennis. Tsitsipas not only beat Nadal again in five sets, but made Nadal his age in the process. Nadal was clearly the most tired player at the end of the match.
The images provided by this victory could produce a domino effect. If victory is combined with a Medvedev or Tsitsipas title, it could reshape not only our look at the 2021 tour, but also the way we look at the race for career titles. Suddenly, the big three could see fewer great opportunities overall and more or less 22 or 23 titles could become 21.
Or maybe Djokovic dominates Tsitsipas / Medvedev in the finals, and that becomes a false start for the next generation. However, Tsitsipas ’comeback makes the final three matches of the Australian Men’s Open even more intriguing than they already were.