DENVER: Models for the next snow show range from a few inches to several feet, but there’s a reason there are so many different predictions about the storm coming in, according to chief meteorologist Mike Nelson.
As of Tuesday evening, the storm was about 1,000 miles away, just reaching the west coast: it must cross the Sierra Nevada, Wasatch and then the Colorado Rockies before it reaches the eastern plains and impact Denver. . area.
There are many things that can change in a few days, but we know that big changes will come. We’ll be getting some snow in the next 24 hours, and then the heavy snow will come over the weekend, and it could be one of the biggest snowstorms in years.
But predicting big storms is not easy.
We use computer models that are very complicated and run on a supercomputer. They simulate how storm systems will move across the United States and around the world.
This mathematical model takes all sorts of different layers into the atmosphere and divides it into tiny little boxes, and then tries to move it from one period of time to the next and the next and the next.
In this way we can find out how storms move.
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Now to make it more interesting. There is more than just a computer model. There are several different models.
There is a global forecasting model, there is a European model that works in both Europe and North America, the Canadian model, the American model and each of these computer models has a different set of physics, equations different, different assumptions about how the environment will move and change over time.
Therefore, paste the same data into four different models. Normally, we don’t get exactly the same production, so we get a lot of snowfall for a given storm.
This is basically what it looks like will happen over the next two days.
By the end of Wednesday we expect snow and rain in the west. Today Thursday will be windy and dry in the southeast. As the storm begins to move through the Great Basin, through Nevada, and finally into Utah, the snow increases.
When we get to Friday, that minimum will go down to the area of the four corners. For people who have seen the weather in Colorado for a long time, this low corner is the most interesting for heavy and intense snow. This is due to the fact that it will descend to southeastern Colorado, dragging a ton of moisture into the Gulf of Mexico, turning it above the highest terrain to the west, that is, uphill that it revolves around the low pressure system. This focuses on heavy snow along the Front Range and the Continental Divide.
Again, this storm is still hundreds of miles away. As we get closer and closer, we will be able to fix it a little better.
But it looks like the San Juans could see a foot or two of snow. Northeast Colorado could see up to a foot and rain to the southeast with very little snow, if any. Further north and west they could be seen from 6 to 12 inches.
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For the Denver Front Range area, more than two feet of snow could be stored for some areas, especially east of the continental divide; some parts of Clear Creek, Gilpin County, Boulder County and Larimer County could see 48 inches of snow and locally, maybe a little more.
March is our biggest snow month of the year, and these big front snows are great for water supply. It will certainly be a nuisance for Friday night, Saturday and Sunday night, but we will catch the moisture because we really need it with the drought conditions we have had.