British authorities are scrambling to contain a new mutated variant of the coronavirus that appears to be spreading rapidly. So far, scientists don’t know much about the new strain, but the fact that it seems to be rapidly increasing in prevalence even during closure is causing serious concern among the British government.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday ordered new level 4 restrictions for large areas of the country, and effectively canceled Christmas meetings by the millions, just days after he said such restrictions would be “inhumane.” This was followed on Sunday by a series of travel bans on people from the UK by countries across Europe and beyond.
The ‘mutant strain’ sounds terrifying. Is this?
Not in itself. Viral genetic material undergoes random changes all the time, although mutations are relatively slow in the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 (scientifically known as SARS-CoV-2). Many of these changes have little or no difference in how the virus behaves. Others can make it more or less infectious or more or less deadly. But the two properties do not necessarily go together.
Is the new variant the first to appear?
No and it sure won’t be the last. An example is the so-called D614G variant with a mutation apart from the ear protein of the virus, which it uses to break into human cells. After appearing in January, in the summer it was found in almost every coronavirus sample worldwide. It seems to be due to the fact that it is better to infect cells and reproduces in greater numbers.
Where does the new strain extend?
Last Monday, UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced in parliament that the new variant was spreading across the south-east of England and that at least 60 local authorities had identified cases caused by it. Maria Van Kerkhove, of the WHO, told the BBC’s Andrew Marr that the new variant had been detected in Denmark and the Netherlands, as well as a case in Australia. Other cases have been found in Belgium and Italy, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.
Is it more infectious?
Following the initial caution last week, scientists are increasingly convinced that the coronavirus variant VUI-202012/01 is more transmissible. On Monday, experts from the UK Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (NERVTAG) told reporters that the group now has “great confidence” that the strain has a transmission advantage over other variants. This compares to the “moderate confidence” the committee said it had at a December 18 meeting.
This may seem obvious given the speed with which the strain spreads, but it can be difficult to rule out other explanations, such as a super-diffusion event that gives a boost to the variant, especially because scientists don’t know what it may be. making the viral strain more infectious. However, NERVTAG scientists said that analyzing the genetic data of the virus along with the epidemiological situation had convinced them of its higher transmission rate. They noted that the strain could continue to spread during the November close in England, even as rates of non-varying coronavirus infections declined.
NERVTAG member Wendy Barclay, head of the infectious disease department and chair of action medical research at Imperial College London, said the coronavirus variant had an unusual cluster of mutations with 22 coding changes. Some of these affect the virus’s ear protein and may help explain its higher reproduction rate. “We don’t understand the biology of all the changes, but adding them all together is a feasible explanation for why this could be more transmissible,” Barclay said.
How fast is it spreading?
The new strain “has shown exponential growth during a period in which national blocking measures were implemented,” the NERVTAG meeting notes. Scientists estimate that the growth rate of the virus is 71% higher than other variants of the virus. This increases the R value between 0.39 and 0.93. It is very likely that this will increase the R value above 1, which means that the epidemic will grow rather than decrease. A note of caution, though: the mutant strain of the virus is difficult to sequence by DNA, so it can be an understatement.
Is it more deadly?
“There is currently nothing to suggest that this variant is more likely to cause serious illness and the latest clinical advice is that it is highly unlikely that this mutation will respond to a vaccine,” Hancock told MPs last week.
NERVTAG scientists say there is currently not enough data to say what the mechanism of increased transmissibility is or whether the variant is more deadly. So far four deaths have been identified in approximately 1,000 cases. So far, there is also not enough data to draw definitive conclusions about the age profile of infected people and whether the mutant virus is recognized by the immune system of someone who has already had the virus or, in fact, has been vaccinated. . However, they are worryingly stated: “Four probable reinfections have been identified among 915 subjects with this variant.”
How do other countries react?
Several countries in Europe and around the world have introduced temporary bans on traveling from the UK to try to prevent the import of the new viral strain, including France, Germany and Belgium. More details here.