With American troops leaving Afghanistan after 20 years, it is time for the Taliban to decide how it wants to run the country – and for the United States to decide how to work with this government.
The big pictures: Militants offer vague guarantees that have changed over time, while foreign powers assess what influence they have to keep insurgents turned rulers to these promises.
- The U.S. will have no influence on the formation of the next government, a senior U.S. official told Axios, but the Taliban’s clear desire to avoid sanctions and cultivate normal relations does bring leverage.
The state of play: Taliban spokesmen have offered a general amnesty, although there are reports of reprisals against people who supported the ousted government or foreign forces.
- They have said that girls can go to school, that women can go to work (once the current discomfort subsides) and that journalists can hold them accountable, all within limitations yet to be defined.
- They have said they will establish an Islamic system, but not how it will be governed or who will run it.
- Nor is it clear to what extent the group’s moderating movements (many of whom spent years in exile after their overthrow in 2001) will seep to the grassroots.
“Now that we’re face to face, it will take time to overcome this transition and truly reconcile, seeing ourselves as human, ”says Obaidullah Baheer, a professor of transitional justice at the American University of Afghanistan, who chose to stay in Kabul even as friends and colleagues. fled.
- His initial interactions with Taliban fighters have been civilian, despite his Western attire, but he is aware of multiple cases of arbitrary beatings.
- “These people who now control Kabul are people who have not experienced governance, but have only struggled for 20 years. And that obviously also has a big impact on the psyche and behavior of the group,” he says.
A clear challenge will be funding.
- Under the ousted government, foreign aid had accounted for 75% of the government budget and about 40% of GDP. It is now on hold. The United States also froze more than $ 9 billion in central bank assets following the Taliban acquisition.
- This sets the U.S. and other foreign powers in a difficult balance: withholding funding to pressure the Taliban to respect the rights of women and minorities, without contributing to economic collapse.
The Taliban already had much of rural Afghanistan before the recent offensive, and somehow “ruled out of government” by providing limited services and speedy, albeit brutal, justice, according to Baheer.
- Most young and educated Afghans in major cities saw the insurgents as barbarians at the door. Although after entering Kabul, Baheer saw a silver line: after so many years of war, there would be peace.
- “That’s not absolute either,” he says, reflecting on the airport attacks. “In the coming days we will have to see if the Taliban can contain the security situation or improve it.”
What follows: Baheer has advised students that they think they will be insecure under the Taliban to leave, but that everyone else stay.
- “This country will need educated people if it has any chance of surviving,” he says.