SALT LAKE CITY – Public health experts once again confront the unknown as other major festivities approach during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This is because the holidays have caused spikes in new COVID-19 cases since the pandemic began. That came true again after the Thanksgiving in Utah, but it was by no means the fear that public health officials feared.
Health experts expect a similar result after Christmas and New Year conclude the most important holiday season.
“We’re definitely going in the right direction with the numbers down, but our big hurdle to coming right now is the Christmas / New Year holidays” and its impact on the COVID-19 situation, Dr. Eddie Stenehjem, an infectious disease doctor from Intermountain Healthcare said during a virtual question and answer session on Wednesday.
“Fingers crossed that Utah comes together as a community as we did in Thanksgiving,” he added. “We didn’t see the big wave we were expecting because Utahns took this seriously. I hope we see the same thing outside of Christmas.”
Utah’s COVID-19 situation is heading toward Christmas, New Year’s Eve
When health officials said the post-Thanksgiving increase was not as bad as feared, it was because the new cases did not raise the state’s seven-day average of cases in unprecedented levels. There were still new cases and hospitalizations as a result of the Thanksgiving meetings.
So far, Utah’s continued average of seven-day cases reached 3,364.7 cases a day on Nov. 22, four days before Thanksgiving. The average fell to 2,296.9 cases per day on November 30 and then rose again to 3,124.6 new cases per day on December 6, which is part of the post-holiday incubation period. It has come down steadily ever since. Utah’s seven-day average is 2,419.3 cases a day, as of Wednesday’s health department update.
The decline is welcome, but expanded data make health experts cautious about their optimism. For example, testing continues to decline compared to pre-Thanksgiving levels, and the test positivity rate remains at 23.7% through December 17th. The latter is a sign that COVID-19 is probably widely uninformed in the state.
At the same time, hospitals are still full of rates that exceed state targets. The total number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19 is 560. Intensive care unit utilization was 92% at Utah referral hospitals and 90% statewide as of Wednesday, according to the state health department. The state warning threshold for ICUs is 72% and the target use threshold is 85%. It is a situation that can only improve if new case counting trends continue to decline.
“Yes, the case count has been reduced (a very encouraging sign) and we have some other indicators that show that we have really decreased community transmission … but our test volumes are not as high as they could be and our testing rate is high, which means we are probably missing a lot of active cases that are not tested, ”Stenehjem said.
“Ideally what we would have seen is that our numbers (COVID-19) would be really low before the holidays and the new year, which would reduce any risk of transmission between families who are reuniting. But we still have very high transmission rates, even though the numbers (new case) have dropped, ”he added.
Stenehjem said he expects COVID-19 testing to increase again in early 2021 as a result of the rapid testing of the Utah student program and advances in testing options, such as home testing kits. .
What is recommended to stay safe during the holidays
Many of the public health recommendations for Christmas and New Year are similar to the Thanksgiving recommendations. When he reviewed the COVID-19 post-Thanksgiving case count data from Utah, Stenehjem said he believed it showed that a lot of people took the advice seriously and that why the increase in vacations wasn’t so bad. as feared.
“I hope this is what will happen again tomorrow for Christmas Eve and the day after for Christmas, and also for New Year’s Eve,” he said.
That’s why the way meetings are handled may be the most important factor in whether post-Christmas and post-Utah COVID-19 peaks don’t end up as severe as feared.
Stenehjem said once again that the best advice would be for Utahns to avoid meetings between different households, which include extended families.
If Utahns chooses to hold multi-household meetings, it is recommended that these meetings be small and take into account high-risk contacts. The fact that a meeting does not include people who are considered at high risk for serious COVID-19 infection does not mean that participants are not in contact with a high-risk person in the time following that meeting.
“If you decide to meet, be very careful about who you meet, in terms of the small number, and don’t meet with people who are at high risk or who are exposed to people at high risk.” Said Stenehjem. “Really think about who you meet. What’s their risk profile? What risk does it have for them or for you if you get infected? And who do they go home to? And who could they potentially infect if they get infected in your meeting?
Stenehjem added that hospitals are not immune to having to break traditions this holiday season. For example, holiday parties are a staple for doctors and nurses where you work, but these were dismissed this year.
“This is not something we can do for sure right now,” he said, adding that they changed it to an ugly Christmas sweater competition to lighten the mood during difficult times for employees. ‘hospital.
Meanwhile, it is clear that there is still a decent risk of COVID-19 spreading at meetings. As of Wednesday, most Utah counties had a 20-30% chance of exposure to COVID-19 during a meeting of at least 10 people, according to the COVID-19 event risk management tool of Georgia Tech. The event risk tool was created to estimate the likelihood that one person would be in contact with at least one other person with COVID-19 in a county-based meeting, COVID-19 case count data, and taking into account the misinformation.
The risk in the highly populated counties of Wasatch Front (Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Weber) ranged from 30% in Salt Lake County to 36% in Utah County. Statewide, Daggett County had the lowest risk, with less than 1%; According to the model, Millard County had the highest risk with 46%.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention again offered holiday recommendations for all December holidays prior to the New Year. CDC recommendations include:
- Perform religious ceremonies practically if possible
- Decorate a holiday scene to share the holiday spirit from home. It is also advisable to stay home to take family photos.
- Drive or stroll through the holiday decor to see them “from a safe distance”
- Organize any holiday party online instead of in person. People can share a holiday playlist for which attendees can listen together or even open gifts together online.
- Have a snowman or snow angel contest with neighbors or friends in the community, as long as all homes are kept at least 6 feet apart while they are out.
- Contact your local community service organizations and find out how you can return them. Officials advise people to ask themselves in advance about safety precautions or see if there are ways to volunteer through “virtual opportunities”.
- Schedule “virtual tours” at the North Pole or make any visits to Santa at a minimum distance of 6 feet, while also wearing a mask.
- If you’re hosting a party in person, try to limit the number of guests and have a “little outdoor celebration” with family and friends living in the same community. It is recommended that people wear masks both indoors and outdoors and that screaming and singing be limited to any celebration or meeting involving multiple homes.
The full list of agency recommendations on COVID-19 can be found here.
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Carter Williams